The next name will be Helene and could be announced next week.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring for a storm that could develop in the Northwest Caribbean Sea over the next week. The chance of development within the next 7 days is 40%, while it is nearly 0% over the next 2 days. The NHC believes a low pressure system could form late this weekend or early next week. It is forecast to move north through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. There is currently a great deal of uncertainty regarding the forecast strength and track of this system. This is a forecast with very, very low confidence in all aspects of the weather parameters: storm type, strength, and track, to name a few. This is the main takeaway I want to share with you. Any information you see about a major hurricane should be closely scrutinized right now. FORECAST ANALYSIS: We are currently getting quite a bit of information from a variety of different forecasts. Two in particular show the potential for a system to enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. But the forecast strength, location, and track are very different. The deterministic forecast from the U.S. has consistently predicted the formation of a stronger storm and its movement into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The same type of forecast from Europe puts the system through the Yucatan Peninsula and into the western Gulf of Mexico, where it is not as strong. Let's break down some of the data we use for our tropical forecasts. This forecast looks at the global ensemble data, which essentially compares dozens of different forecasts. Note that the forecast from Europe shows a median probability of 60% for the formation of a tropical storm (a tropical depression or stronger) in the western Caribbean next Tuesday. However, looking a few days into the future, two scenarios emerge, one moving northeast toward the Florida panhandle while the other moves west toward the Bay of Campeche. This suggests that there are competing solutions to the feature in the atmosphere that will determine the system's trajectory. Another way to clearly see the uncertainty over the next week is to look at the forecasts for the centers of the low pressure system. Each circle is a point where the tropical system is forecast to be. The more concentric circles there are in a given location, the lower the forecast pressure, which equates to a stronger storm. The first forecast is from Europe and is provided by the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The second is from here in the US and is provided by the GFS (Global Forecast System). Both days shown are next Thursday. First of all, both forecasts show circles everywhere. This indicates that the forecast data is not at all certain about where the system will form and where it will move. Second, you notice fewer circles in the forecast from Europe. This indicates the forecast of a weak system that could only develop into a tropical depression or, at worst, a tropical storm. Third, look at the larger number of circles in the US forecast. This points to the forecast of a much stronger storm. Finally, I see the features that will dictate the path of the storm next week. If the Bermuda High dominates and interacts with a storm system in the US, these features should push the system toward Florida. If the Bermuda High continues to move east, the jet stream moves over the northern US, and the high pressure system dominates over the western US, this could steer the system toward Mexico, keeping it completely off the Gulf Coast. This forecast is still a ways off. While I am moderately confident that we will track a tropical SYSTEM next week, I am not so sure how strong the storm will be, nor am I so sure exactly where it will move. Be sure to keep checking back here where the entire WDSU First Warning Weather team will update this story with any new information as it is issued or updated.

—

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring possible developments in the northwest Caribbean sometime next week.

The probability of the system developing within the next 7 days is 40%, while it is nearly 0% within the next 2 days. The NHC believes a low pressure system could form late this weekend or early next week. It is forecast to move north across the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. There is currently a great deal of uncertainty regarding the forecast strength and path of this system.

This is a forecast with very, very low confidence in all aspects of the weather parameters: storm type, strength, and path, to name a few. This is the most important takeaway I want to share with you. Any information you see about a major hurricane should now be closely examined.

FORECAST ANALYSIS:

We are now getting a lot of information from a variety of different forecasts. Two in particular show that a system may enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. However, the forecast strength, location and track vary widely.

The deterministic forecast from the USA consistently assumed the formation of a stronger storm and its spread into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The same type of forecast from Europe brings the system over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the western Gulf of Mexico, where it is not as strong.

Let's break down some of the data we use for our tropical forecasts.

This forecast looks at the global ensemble data, which essentially compares dozens of different forecasts. Note that the forecast from Europe indicates a median probability of 60% for the formation of a tropical depression (a tropical depression or stronger) in the western Caribbean next Tuesday.

However, if you travel a few days further, two migration scenarios emerge: one heading northeast toward the Florida Panhandle, the other heading west toward the Bay of Campeche.

This suggests that there are competing solutions of the property in the atmosphere that will determine the course of the system.

Another way to clearly see the uncertainty over the next week is to look at the forecasts to see where the low pressure centers will be located. Each circle is a point where the tropical system is forecast to be. The more concentric circles there are in a given location, the lower the pressure is forecast, which equates to a stronger storm.

The first forecast comes from Europe, from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The second comes from here in the USA, from the GFS (Global Forecast System). Both days shown are the next Thursday.

First of all, both forecasts show circles everywhere. This means that the forecast data is not at all certain where the system will form and where it will move.

Secondly, you will notice that there are fewer circles in the forecast for Europe. This indicates the forecast of a weak system that could possibly only develop into a tropical depression or, at worst, a tropical storm.

Third, note the larger number of circles in the US forecast. This indicates the prediction of a much stronger storm.

I'm finally starting to see the features that will determine the direction of next week's storm.

If the Bermuda High dominates and interacts with a storm system in the US, these features should help push the system toward Florida.

If the Bermuda High continues to move east, the jet stream moves over the northern United States, and the high pressure area dominates over the western United States, this could direct the system toward Mexico and keep it completely away from the Gulf Coast.

This forecast is still far off. I am moderately sure that we will have a tropical SYSTEM Next week I'm not sure how strong the storm will be, nor am I sure exactly where it will go.

Be sure to check back here as the entire WDSU First Warning Weather team will update this story with any new information as it is issued or updated.