National Hurricane Center monitors Caribbean, Gulf

An area from the northwestern Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico will be closely monitored for the development of a tropical storm next week. It's too early to know any specifics, but the U.S. Gulf Coast should closely monitor how this forecast develops in the coming days.

The area to be observed: The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula where a tropical depression or storm could potentially form over the next seven days. There is currently no system to track in this region, as evidenced by the general absence of storms in the satellite view below.

By early next week, an extensive low-pressure area could form in conjunction with the so-called Central American vortex, bringing increasingly stormy weather.

When a tropical storm could develop: The window for the formation of a tropical depression or storm in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico opens in the middle of next week. The next storm names are Helene and Isaac.

For this to happen, the broader low pressure area would have to replace a better defined low pressure area with sustained rain and thunderstorm activity. This usually happens over the course of several days after a vortex has formed.

If a storm forms, it can take the following direction: This potential storm could move north or northeast toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, or northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula and then toward the southwestern Gulf.

The greater the influence of this jet stream, the more likely it is that the system will be pulled northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. If its influence is less, the system could move northwestward toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf. However, its future path beyond that is uncertain.

The timing of any potential impact on the US is likely to be late next week or later at the earliest.

Could it be a hurricane? This is certainly possible. Ocean heat content is a favorable factor for intensification, and the map below shows that there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

But there are other factors that play a role, such as whether the wind pattern at altitude favors intensification. It is also not known whether dry air nearby or land contact, such as with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, could hinder intensification.

At this time, stakeholders along the U.S. Gulf Coast should closely monitor the situation while ensuring hurricane preparedness plans are in place. Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates throughout the weekend and beyond as we share more details on what to expect.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career at the Weather Channel in the early 2000s.