Series preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off the highlight of their season. They beat the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, the same day they officially won the National League Central. If they look a little weaker on Thursday, we might know why.

The Diamondbacks, however, need to keep pushing. They are currently the second wild card in the National League, but they are only two games ahead of the fourth-place Atlanta Braves – who are currently out of the postseason. The Brewers could also improve their position: with 10 games left in the season, they are two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and have the second-best record in the National League (though it's effectively three games since LA has the tiebreaker).

These two teams, of course, faced each other just last weekend in a three-game series at Chase Field, as all seven games this season are squeezed into a 10-day period. The Brewers won the first two games of that series and almost won the third, but that was a bizarre “Devin Williams warmed up but didn't throw” game that Milwaukee lost 11-10 in 10 innings. Since then, the Diamondbacks have lost two of three games to Colorado, who appear to be playing tough National League contenders in the final month of the season.

This time it will be a four-game tournament between two teams that faced each other in the Wild Card round of the playoffs last year and could potentially do so again in a few weeks.

Probable pitchers

Thursday, September 19, 6:15 p.m.: Tobias Myers (3.07 ERA, 4.11 FIP) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (4.81 ERA, 3.66 FIP)

Myers has slowed down a bit in the home stretch, but he still had a wonderful season. On Saturday, he picked up his eighth win of the season in the Brewers' 15-8 victory over Arizona, a game in which he allowed four runs in six innings.

He'll face Brandon Pfaadt for the second time in a week. However, Pfaadt probably had his worst start of a frustrating season, allowing eight earned runs without getting past the second inning. Pfaadt's ERA doesn't look great this season, but he has a solid 3.66 FIP and his peripherals look good, suggesting he's had some bad luck. In any case, the Brewers got a good look at him on Saturday, and we'll see if that continues on Thursday.

Friday, September 20, 7:10 p.m.: TBD vs. Zac Gallen (3.61 ERA, 3.28 FIP)

This is the spot where DL Hall started for the Brewers on Sunday, and presumably Colin Rea's spot in the rotation if the rest of the probabilities are correct. Rea threw 2 ²⁄₃ innings on Monday, so technically he'd only have a short rest if he made that start. I'm guessing we'll see Hall again, but it could be a piggyback situation.

Gallen has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting each of the past two seasons. He won't be able to do that this year, but he's been solid; his walks are up a bit, but he's striking out virtually as many batters as he has the past two seasons, and his FIP has remained remarkably consistent (3.28 this season versus 3.26 when he finished third in the CYA voting last season). He started that wild game on Sunday, allowing three runs on six hits in five innings, but before that he had allowed zero runs in three of four starts.

Saturday, September 21, 6:10 p.m.: Aaron Civale (4.48 ERA, 4.17 FIP) vs. Merrill Kelly (4.00 ERA, 4.79 FIP)

Civale has a 3.68 ERA since joining Milwaukee after a midseason trade, and has been trending up recently: He has a 2.56 ERA (but a 3.95 FIP) in his last seven starts. In his last outing on Monday, he threw five innings of one-run ball in a 6-2 win over Philadelphia.

Kelly missed much of the season and didn't pitch between April 15 and August 11. Kelly has been a solid pitcher over the past few years and was a great player for Arizona last postseason. He got off to a great start this season and had a 2.19 ERA at the time of his injury, but he struggled a bit after returning in August. He looked better in September and has a 3.18 ERA in three starts this month.

Sunday, September 22, 1:10 p.m.: Frankie Montas (4.50 ERA, 3.92 FIP) vs. Jordan Montgomery (6.23 ERA, 4.59 FIP)

Montas has been pretty good lately, although he has had a couple of starts where he looked excellent and then allowed a few runs. He looked great against the Phillies on Tuesday when he made 10 strikeouts, but the Phillies got three runs out of him and inflicted a loss on him. In general, Montas has been very good since joining the Brewers and may have positioned himself as a likely third starter on the postseason depth chart.

It's been a rough year for Montgomery, who went through a difficult free agency process before joining the Diamondbacks and earned much less than he had hoped for. With the rebuilding process starting late, Montgomery was slow to get out of the starting blocks and never really found his stride. Arizona has used him occasionally out of the bullpen recently, though he was back in the starting lineup in his last outing on September 17, when he allowed three runs in 4 games to the Rockies. ²⁄₃ innings.

forecast

I expect the Brewers will probably have a bit of a hangover from the win on Thursday, whether that's literal or not, and since the Brewers are unlikely to catch the Dodgers or Phillies in the final 10 games, the Diamondbacks are probably more motivated. But they also struggled last week and the Brewers outscored them last weekend, so I'm predicting a tie.