The Teamsters have not endorsed Trump or Harris. Does that matter?

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, one of the largest and most prominent unions in the United States, has declined to endorse a presidential candidate, citing significant policy differences among its members and dissatisfaction with each major candidate's stance on key union priorities.

In a tight presidential race where the vast majority of unions support Vice President Kamala Harris, the Teamsters' decision not to do so could be seen as a high-profile rebuke, especially since Harris is part of a Democratic administration that has largely been strong in its support of union rights. But whether the decision actively harms her remains to be seen.

The Teamsters represent more than a million workers in a wide range of industries, including UPS drivers and workers in construction, health care and garbage collection. Its members are located throughout the United States, but the Teamsters have a particularly strong base in the Midwest and swing states that could be decisive in November.

Before the decision, the Teamsters surveyed its members on their preferences for president. In a September phone poll, 58 percent of Teamsters members supported Republican candidate Donald Trump, and 31 percent said they would like to see the union endorse Harris. In test polls conducted at town hall meetings before President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the race in July, 44 percent of members supported Biden, compared to 36 percent for Trump.

While the poll results suggest a general preference for Trump, a number of local unions and subgroups of the Teamsters have come out vocally in support of Harris. The Teamsters National Black Caucus endorsed Harris in August without waiting for the national organization's decision. Following Wednesday's announcement, local unions in battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – to name a few – also endorsed Harris.

Now both camps claim to have the Teamsters behind them: Trump because of the poll results and Harris because of local support.

The lack of endorsement ultimately may not play a major role in how the Teamsters vote. Polls and local expressions of support so far have made it clear that most Teamsters have a firm preference this election cycle, and it's not clear that an endorsement from the national union would have done much to change that.

Peverill Squire, a professor of political science at the University of Missouri, told Vox that supporting unions locally, during the election campaign, is really important.

“Union support is valuable because it usually comes with access to resources, especially volunteers to knock on doors and operate telephone switchboards,” Squire said. “Leadership may be able to convince some members to vote the way they want, but the real value is in campaign support.”

In addition to the disadvantage of having fewer volunteers, there is also the possibility that refusing to support them could influence non-union voters who are positive about labor issues.

“The lack of support has a lot of symbolism,” Larry Isaac, a professor of sociology and political economy at Vanderbilt University, told Vox.

Sean O'Brien, chairman of the Teamsters, said: “We have demanded commitments from both Trump and Harris not to interfere in key union campaigns or in core Teamsters industries and to respect our members' right to strike. However, we have not been able to obtain these commitments.” This statement, along with the decision not to support either candidate, is a clear argument that neither candidate has the unions in mind.

Before Wednesday's announcement, there were indications that the union might not endorse Harris at all, which would mark a break with other major unions. That wasn't a big surprise, since the Teamsters have often been out of step with the rest of the U.S. labor movement politically, Isaac said. The United Auto Workers, the American Federation of Teachers, the AFL-CIO and many smaller unions from various industries and across the country have endorsed Harris.

Still, the Teamsters' announcement could be enough to sway some voters. Americans are more supportive of unions than they have been in decades — and some data suggests voters in the 2022 election would be more likely to support candidates they perceive as pro-union.

Harris's ties to Biden have given her a good record on workers' rights. Biden was on the picket line with UAW workers when they went on strike last summer and generally supports the right to strike and seeks to undermine corporate power. But the administration also forced Teamsters union members back to work ahead of a railroad strike in 2022 under a contract that union leaders say was less than ideal.

But Harris' own policies and values, which differ from Biden's, are not well known, although she has supported the Protect the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which would strengthen protections for workers' rights to unionize and collectively bargain. But the Teamsters leadership was reportedly not impressed with what it heard at a meeting with Harris earlier this week.

Trump, on the other hand, appointed anti-unionists to the National Labor Review Board during his presidency and passed laws that restricted workers' right to organize and strengthened the possibility of union splits. Instead of focusing on pro-worker policies, Trump has spent the 2024 campaign courting the working class with his populist message. Yet Trump also apparently did not impress the Teamsters at his roundtable meeting with members.