Gameday preview and score prediction for Utah vs Oklahoma State

SALT LAKE CITY – Utah vs. Oklahoma State begins in just a few hours in Stillwater, with both teams battling to improve their season record to 4-0 and secure a significant lead in the race for the Big 12 Conference.

This is only the second time ever that these two programs have faced off against each other, but it is the first of many significant battles the two programs will have in the coming years.

Here are some final thoughts on the game and a score prediction for the game.

Utah vs. Oklahoma State

Game info

Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium

TV: FOX

Rado: AM700

records: No. 12 Utah (3-0); No. 14 Oklahoma State (3-0)

Last week: Utah beat Utah State 38-21; Oklahoma State beat Tulsa 45-10

Three thoughts on match day

1. Utah O vs Oklahoma State D in the Red Zone

Oklahoma State's defense has a reputation for allowing a lot of yards to its opponents, currently averaging 462.7 yards per game.

At the same time, they are surprisingly successful in limiting the opponent's scoring efficiency. This is due to good defense in the red zone.

Under Andy Ludwig, the Utes rank No. 4 in the country in red zone offense (2019-2024, excluding 2020) according to SportSource Analytics' Red Zone Rating (a proprietary rating that combines both red zone drive percentage and points per red zone drive to produce an overall red zone performance score).

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys own the No. 12 red zone defense in the same red zone rating formula during the same time period.

In the three games of 2024, neither program will play at the same level. However, in the rankings for 2024, they are almost identical.

The Utes have the No. 46 red zone offense, while the Cowboys have the No. 47 red zone defense.

Utah should have opportunities in the red zone in this game. The key is to convert them into points.

2. Utah's football team needs 200+ yards on the ground

After rushing for 221 yards and scoring a touchdown last week, Utah will need to put on another strong ground performance against Oklahoma State.

The Utes were able to get more movement on offense in week two, and then managed to advance more efficiently into the second division last week.

This allowed Micah Bernard and Mike Mitchell to make some good plays, resulting in an average of 7.2 for Bernard and 5.4 for Mitchell.

Utah will need more of that this week, as the Cowboys defense allows 157.3 rushing yards per game (93rd in the country) and 4.41 per carry (88th in the country).

Utah's offensive line should be able to generate positive movement.

The Cowboys concede 3.21 yards on the defensive line (Baylor 2.57, USU 3.74), while Utah's offensive line generates 3.08 yards on the offensive line.

When Utah rushes for over 200 yards, which they have done 32 times since 2019, they have a record of 28-4.

3. Pressure on Oklahoma State Pass Attack

Utah's pass rush against Oklahoma States pass protection will be a deciding factor in this game.

The Utes have one of the best pass rushes in the conference and the country. They have the 8th sack rate in the country, including conference leader Van Fillinger with 3.5 sacks.

The Cowboys have one of the best pass protection rates in the conference and the country. In three games so far, they have allowed 11 pressures and 0 sacks.

A key factor in their efficient pass blocking is Bowman's ability to throw the ball quickly. Of 140 qualified quarterbacks, Bowman has the seventh-fastest “time to throw” at 2.26 seconds. Only 32.7% of his dropbacks have achieved a “time to throw” of 2.5 seconds or more.

This means the secondary must also put pressure on the passing attack. Utah must disrupt the quick timing that Bowman plays with. This can be accomplished by using physical force with defensive backs in press coverage or by creating schematic confusion to make Bowman hesitate.

Oklahoma State has yet to allow a sack this season, but when they lose the sack lead over the opponent, they have a record of 6-12 since 2019.

Two questions about Utah and Oklahoma State

1. Cam rises?

The most important factor of the game is whether or not Cam Rising will play. There were some positive signs earlier in the week, but on Wednesday things started to change. He is still expected to play, but the injury was problematic.

Rising's status will not be officially decided until before the game, which is something Ute fans know all too well. Given the injury, this is obviously a sensitive issue for a quarterback, so his status could still change even after the pregame decision is made.

2. Is Utah ready for Ollie Gordon?

After losing over 100 yards to Utah State RB Rashul Faison last week, Utah now faces reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon.

Utah has always placed a high emphasis on defending the run game. It is the defense's top priority year after year.

Although Gordon has not had the start that many expected of him, he is a talent who can take off at any time.

Utah needs to defend much better against Gordon and the Cowboys' attacks.

Score prediction for Utah vs Oklahoma State

It seems like this game will be a point-scoring one for both teams, but I can't shake the feeling that this game will be a bit of a grind.

Utah 27, Oklahoma State 23

The Utah football team’s conference schedule can be found here.

Steve Bartle is the Utah insider for KSL Sports. He hosts the Utah Blockcast (SUBSCRIBE) and appears on KSL Sports Zone to analyze the Utes. You can follow him on X for the latest Utah updates and game analysis.

Take us with you wherever you go.

Download the new and improved KSL Sports app from Utah's leading sports provider. Stream live radio, video, and stay up to date on all your favorite teams.