Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Cal Golden Bears

The Florida State Seminoles, who are still looking for their first win of the 2024 season, will be hosting the undefeated California Golden Bears on Saturday at 7:00 p.m. from Doak Campbell Stadium for the finale of a 3-game homestand. The game will be televised on ESPN2.

Florida State (0-3, 0-2 ACC) and Cal (3-0, 0-0 ACC) are meeting for the first time in series history and this will be the first ACC game for Cal. Since Florida State’s arrival to the ACC in 1992 nine teams have joined the conference, including Cal, Stanford and SMU this season. FSU was the first opponent played for five of those teams: Miami in 2004, Boston College in 2005, Pitt in 2013, Cal this week, and SMU next week. Of those five, only this week’s game against Cal was a home game. The Seminoles are 3-2 all-time against teams from California, including 1-0 at home.

Cal’s defense leads the nation with nine interceptions – no other team has more than seven. Bears DB Nohl Williams leads the country with four interceptions and is the only player with at least one pick in each of his first three games. He is also first with seven passes defended. Cal is tied for the lead in takeaways (10) and tied for second in turnover margin (+8).

The Golden Bears are allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game ranking 36th in rushing defense while FSU has the 133rd-ranked rushing offense in the FBS at only 52 yards per game.

Cal’s defense is allowing 12.3 points per game. FSU’s offense is 124th in the FBS at 15.3 points per game. The Bears rank 37th in yards allowed per game (288.7) while FSU’s 274 yards gained per game is good for 128th in the FBS.

The Bears offense is led by QB Fernando Mendoza who has completed 61-of-87 (70.1%) passes for 589 yards with five touchdowns and one interception for a 143.7 passer rating. Mendoza has had the three highest completion percentages of his career in the first three games of the 2024 season, including a career-best 72.4% (21-of-29) in his most recent contest against San Diego State. In the first half at Auburn, Mendoza completed 19-of-21 passes (90.5%). RB Jaydn Ott, who ran for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023 is expected to return after missing last week’s game due to injury. Cal has outscored its opponents 24-0 in the third quarter and 48-14 in the second half in 2024.

Cal’s 203.3 passing yards per game ranks 91st in the FBS. Florida State’s defense gives up 174.7 through the air (46th in college football).

FSU has allowed 3rd-down conversions on 50.0% of their opponents’ attempts (125th in the FBS). The Golden Bears have a 40.4% third-down conversion rate, which ranks 69th in college football.

According to FanDuel, the Seminoles are 2.5-point favorites against the Bears with the over/under set at 44.5.

• Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
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Cal 24, FSU 17

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Zero reason to expect anything different.

Cal 23, FSU 6

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Last week, I stated I would not pick the Seminoles until they put something on display that proves they have a pulse and nothing has changed. Florida State turned the ball over three times last Saturday, took some horrific penalties, and does not own an identity on either side of the ball. At practice this week, little changed with the offense going backward on Wednesday while the defense looks to be finding its groove that they did at times have against Memphis, but still cannot string consistent long stretches of solid play. I am not picking FSU to win this week, and that’s before even considering how solid this Cal team is. They run the ball effectively with two decent backs, Fernando Mendoza can make plays when his team needs it, and Justin Wilcox fixed the defense over the off-season, creating a long, fast, and physical unit that would give most teams trouble. As noted, Vegas favored Norvell’s team for some odd reason, but Florida State should not be getting points against anyone right now. The main question on Saturday is not if FSU wins but how loud the boos are after the offense goes three-and-out in their first drive.

Cal 27, Florida State 13

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It’s not all on the quarterback but the quarterback is bottlenecking the good moments from a very average skill group. If FSU gets either or both of its offensive tackles back this week my feelings might change but as it currently stands; DJU behind this OL, with his processing speed is a recipe for an unsuccessful offense.

Defensively, I feel better than I did in week 1 or week 2 but they’re likely to wear down as the games goes on. Mike Norvell responded to his last 0-4 start by winning three straight; I hope it goes much better than this go around.

Cal 27, FSU 17

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In my exhaustive research for this column I unearthed some surprising things. Not only is FSU favored, but this game will also be televised. The real shocker, though, was discovering that Cal is – in fact – an ACC school. When do these things happen? And were the good California programs like Fresno State and Azusa-Pacific taken? Regardless, since I live in the hometown of ACC legend Aaron Rodgers*, I feel a bit forced to take his Bears.

Cal 45, FSU 3

*FSU was his dream school, but he didn’t get an offer. Thanks, Bobby. At least we had Wyatt Sexton.

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This is the week the Noles will finally put together a full game and turn the season around. A loss to Cal could jeopardize FSU’s chances to make the expanded college playoffs at the end of the season.

Norvell, the assistant coaches, and all the players have finally realized that they can no longer treat these early season games as glorified scrimmages and they have finally gotten serious as they prepare for the meat of the schedule, and to defend the ACC title in the championship game.

FSU will beat Cal because the Seminole players will want it more and play with more heart than the Bear players.

FSU Seminoles 41, California Nicklaus’s 17

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• Matt Minnick (0-3, 3-0 ATS)

Believe it or not, I thought the ‘Noles looked improved last week against a solid Memphis squad. The defensive line finally appeared like they understand their NFL draft payday has much higher long-term potential than their NIL deals, and as shocking as it might be, NFL scouts don’t recommend drafting players who jog, quit, don’t set the edge, and don’t re-establish the line of scrimmage. Additionally, DJU made a number of on-the-money throws, some caught and many dropped. Unfortunately, FSU played like a team full of guys who have no clue how to win, with a litany of self-inflicted wounds at the most inopportune times ultimately costing themselves a win.

So now Cal comes to town. Their best player is a running back, which sounds less than ideal for an FSU team that gives up long drives. But their OL is as bad as the one in Tallahassee. If the game were being played at Noon, I might actually be on FSU. 91 degrees and a “9 am” start for a West Coast team sounds like a recipe for a home win. But that home field is negated thanks to TV wanting to see another FSU loss and I think the Seminoles make enough errors to give the execs what they want. I’ll take Cal and the under.

Cal 23, FSU 19

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Call it a broken man clinging to hope as cope, chalk it up to a gambler’s fallacy-based belief that something is going to give way, attribute it to whatever you like, because I really have no explainer for this pick other than gut feeling.

FSU 28, Cal 20

Florida State Seminoles vs. California Golden Bears

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

• Making the grade: What the numbers say about Florida State’s offensive line against Memphis-The OL struggled (again) in the defeat to the Tigers.
• Line of Scrimmage: FSU vs. Cal preview — how do Golden Bears stack up with Seminoles?
• Betting: College Football Week 4 Picks, DFS & Podcast: The Great War-Cal looks to revolutionize the ACC starting with trip to Tally
• Preseason Schedule Preview: 2024 FSU Schedule Preview: Cal-The inaugural meeting between the Seminoles and Golden Bears.
• How To Watch: Florida State vs. Cal: How to watch, stream, TV info, game notes, odds
• Depth Chart: FSU releases Week 4 depth chart for matchup vs. Cal-Seminoles are 2.5 point favorites heading into the game
• TN Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. California Golden Bears
• Practice Report: Situational Wednesday practice for FSU sees defense win the day: Notes, observations-The secondary continues to round into form with one of their best days of the season
• Practice Report: “Good, competitive work — high emotions:” Notes, observations from FSU’s first open practice of Cal week-Emotions ran high during a spirited Tuesday
• Media Monday: Mike Norvell, Adam Fuller, and John Papuchis recap Memphis loss, address needed improvements against Cal-“What is your week looking like? What is it leading up to the game? What are you allowing in?”
• NEW RECRUITING THREAD #8 is up– NoleThruandThru and Josh Pick keep you up to date on the LATEST FSU RECRUITING NEWS @ Tomahawk Nation’s hub for all things relating to Florida State football recruiting –Florida State Football: OFFICIAL Tribe ‘24 Recruiting and Portal Thread #8
• Report: ACC exploring settlement with Florida State and Clemson-Is the legal battle between Florida State and the ACC coming to an end?
• Slow start to season shows Florida State Football needs to shake up its approach to NIL and recruiting-What are the solutions?

Florida State Seminoles vs. Cal Bears: How to watch

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FSU Broadcast: CH. 98 or 194/SXM App

Florida State vs. Cal Bears: Game notes

» Florida State wraps up its three-game homestand by hosting Cal in the first matchup between the schools in series history. Cal will be the second team from the state of California to visit Tallahassee. Florida State’s only previous matchup inside Doak Campbell Stadium with a team from California was a 30-10 win over No. 18 USC in 1998.

» FSU is the first ACC game for Cal, and Florida State will also be the first ACC opponent for SMU next week. There have been nine additions to the conference since Florida State joined the ACC for the 1992 season and the Seminoles have been the first ACC game for five of those with four (Miami in 2004, Boston College in 2005, Pitt in 2013, SMU in 2024) played on the road. No other team has been scheduled as the first ACC opponent for a new conference addition more than once.

» Florida State is 23-7 since the start of the 2022 season. The team’s 23 total wins and 76.7 winning percentage in that span are the best in the ACC, with the win total ranking 9th nationally and the winning percentage 12th.

» The Seminoles are one of four ACC teams still perfect in red zone scoring opportunities this season. Dating back to last season, Florida State has scored points on 20 of its last 23 red zone drives.

» Ryan Fitzgerald’s 59-yard field goal in the season opener against Georgia Tech is tied for the longest field goal in the nation this year and is the longest in a conference game in ACC history. He also made a 52-yard field goal against the Yellow Jackets and made a 54-yard field goal, tied for the 5th-longest in Doak Campbell Stadium history, against Memphis.

» Fitzgerald is the only kicker in the country with multiple makes from at least 54 yards. He is one of three kickers with three 50- yard field goals in 2024 and the sixth kicker in FSU history with at least three 50-yard field goals in a single season.

» Alex Mastromanno has the best punting average in the country with a mark of 49.8 yards per punt. The Seminoles lead the ACC and rank 8th in the nation with a net punting average of 45.4 yards per punt. Last year, Florida State’s net punting average of 43.3 yards per punt was 3rd in the country.

» Florida State held Memphis to 65 rushing yards, the Seminoles’ 3rd-best single-game rush defense performance under head coach Mike Norvell.

» FSU recorded a season-high 9.0 tackles for loss against Memphis, the Seminoles’ most in a game since making 14.0 TFLs in the 2023 ACC Championship Game win vs. No. 14 Louisville. It was the most TFLs allowed by Memphis since December 27, 2022.

» Five Florida State players have made their first collegiate start in 2024. Linebacker Blake Nichelson has started each of the last two games, while defensive back K.J. Kirkland, offensive lineman Jaylen Early and tight ends Brian Courtney and Jackson West made their first career starts vs. Memphis.

» Florida State’s offensive line boasts 377 collegiate games played, the most in the country, with 225 starts, the 2nd-highest total nationally. The line includes returning first-team All-ACC offensive tackle Darius Washington, all-conference center Maurice Smith and starting tackle Jeremiah Byers from last year’s group that blocked for the ACC’s highest-scoring offense for the second straight year. Washington and Byers have both missed games this season due to injury, and eight different offensive linemen have made at least one start through the season’s first three games, matching last year’s season-long total.

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