What warmer-than-usual weather in Milwaukee could mean for this winter | WUWM 89.7 FM

It's officially fall, but it's not quite sweater weather yet.

Cameron Miller is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Milwaukee, near Sullivan, Wisconsin.

He says summer weather in Milwaukee will likely stick around for a while, but this summer and spring's rain should help keep the drought at bay.

Lake Effect's Xcaret Nuñez spoke with Miller to find out what this warmer-than-usual weather might mean for this winter.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

It was my first summer in Milwaukee and it was definitely a humid summer. Why was it so rainy this summer?

When we look at the observations from this summer, we typically use a regional model that summarizes what happened last summer, and we found that we actually had a stronger jet stream over the upper Midwest. And typically when we have a stronger jet stream, we have more storms and a better storm track over the upper Midwest. That's why we've had more storms and more rain in the region than we normally do, at least not in recent years.

Do you know how much more it rained this summer compared to previous years?

Surprisingly, in Milwaukee, we were actually about average for the June through August period. We usually measure our seasonal normals over a three-month period. So in Milwaukee, it was 11 inches of rain, 11.71 inches to be exact, which is about a third of an inch above the climate normal for Milwaukee. But if you look a little further west, in Madison, they had a lot more rain. They had about 20 inches of rain last summer, which is among the top five wettest summers here. For Milwaukee, 11 and three-quarters inches is unfortunately… a pretty typical summer for Milwaukee, but there were just a lot of days with these little showers that brought with them chances of rain. So it seemed like we had a lot of days, but overall it was about normal for Milwaukee.

The good news is that the rains have alleviated the drought compared to last year.

So we have seen a slow improvement since October last year. US Drought Monitorwe've basically improved. We completely wiped the drought out of the state by late June into late July with the precipitation that we had last summer. So the particularly wet spring that we had gave us a head start and then here into early summer, particularly in parts west of Milwaukee, from central Wisconsin into northern Wisconsin, it really helped end the drought there.

Let's talk about what's going on right now. It's officially fall, but it doesn't really feel like it. Why is it still so warm?

So what's happening with the pattern in the upper atmosphere is you have these so-called ridges and troughs in the upper atmosphere. Troughs are typically where the jet stream is descending southward across the United States, and ridges are where the jet stream is rising northward. So below a ridge, temperatures are typically warmer, below a trough, temperatures are colder. So for the last three weeks, we've essentially had a trough over the western United States and a persistent ridge over the eastern United States. With that ridge came warmer temperatures to the north, and we've been well above normal here essentially across the entire eastern United States. Wisconsin is no exception.

Is it normal for it to be so warm in September?

Not really. The normal climate for Milwaukee, at least at this time of year, is around 73 [degrees]. It's interesting that at this time of year we lose a degree below our normal temperatures about every two or three days. And if we look at our normal temperatures, even though we lose that degree every two or three days, we remain well above it. [73 degrees]especially given the current weather conditions.

For what period do you predict it will be warm?

So that's really based on long-term climate models. We rely on the Climate Prediction Center and they generally do forecasts on a one-week, two-week time horizon and then look at the monthly and then the three-month forecasts. So the two-week forecast is predicting a 70 to 80% chance of sustained above-normal temperatures. So it looks like we're not going to see any relief from the above-normal temperatures here in the second half of the month. Granted, that could mean we'll drop around 80 degrees and still be just above the climate normal of 70 degrees that we'll have later in the month in Milwaukee. But it still looks like our temperatures will be mostly above normal. And as far as our precipitation or rain, it looks like we'll be slightly below normal. So they're giving us a 33% chance of below-normal precipitation in the second half of the month.

Do these warmer than usual weather patterns give us any indication of what to expect in Milwaukee this winter?

So that could vary. If you look at some of the long-term forecasts for this winter, they're predicting that we're going to get into La Niña conditions. And when we get La Niña conditions, typically over the Midwest, that means the jet stream, the current that drives storms in the winter, moves a little bit farther south and gives us a more active and a little bit colder pattern. So we'll have to wait and see how strong La Niña gets this winter. But long-term forecasts are actually predicting that this winter will be La Niña, which could favor a colder and wetter pattern.

So maybe a little different than last winter.

Yeah, a little different. It felt like our winter was compressed into a two-week period. I mean, luckily I didn't experience that because I was in Mexico. But yeah, it seems like we usually have some of our snowier winters here, especially with this La Niña pattern. So you'll just have to wait and see how it plays out over time.