Fantasy Baseball Tuesday Tip – Braves go to Schwellenbach

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Atlanta's season is at stake

Despite a series of injuries, including the loss of OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and RHP Spencer Strider, two of the best players at their respective positions, the Atlanta Braves remain in the race for the NL Wild Card with one week left in the regular season. They still have some work to do, entering Week 2 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets, who are currently tied for the final two playoff spots in the Senior Circuit.

Although the Braves do not have their fate in their own hands, they have a chance to significantly improve their chances with a home game against the Mets beginning Tuesday. The Braves will hand the ball to rookie RHP Spencer Schwellenbach while the Mets will counter with experienced RHP Luis Severino. These are a pair of potential streamers for this decisive duel.

Early in the season, after several other players were unable to perform, Schwellenbach (40.0% on the roster in ESPN leagues) solved the Braves' need for a fifth starter. As it turns out, he was more than that, as injuries have thinned the Braves' rotation all season. Schwellenbach will make at least 20 starts overall after carrying the ball regularly since late May. The club has a negative record with the 24-year-old right-hander on the mound, but he's done his part with a 3.61 ERA, fully aided by a 3.35 xFIP and a 3.39 SIERA. Schwellenbach's 21.4 K-BB% ranks an impressive 13th among pitchers who have accumulated at least 100 IP.

Severino (35.5% of the roster) signed a one-year pillow contract with the Mets last November, proving he was foresighted in his choice of employer. Thanks to working in the game's best pitching park, Severino is enjoying a renaissance season. His xFIP of 4.17 and SIERA of 4.26 show he hasn't pitched quite as well as his actual ERA of 3.79 would suggest, but his estimates are just a tad above the league's ERA of 4.08. Severino's success has come from limiting walks and keeping the ball in yards.

Over the last month, the Braves and Mets lineups had nearly identical wOBA against right-handers, with the Braves just one point higher at .312. However, the Mets had a higher batting average of 25.2%, compared to just 21.8% for the Braves.

As Tuesday's rankings show, Schwellenbach is the preferred fantasy option. He's at home and facing a lineup with a higher strikeout rate of late. Perhaps most importantly, Schwellenbach's peripherals are better than Severino's.

Everything else worth knowing about Tuesday

• Tuesday is the final day of this season without an afternoon event. The schedule begins at 6:40 p.m. ET with four contests.

• Schwellenbach is the highest-ranked streaming candidate on the list, but only just as RHP of the Toronto Blue Jays Francis of Bowden (51.2% roster) is higher, but barely beats our 50% cutoff used to identify fantasy spot starters. Let's bend the rules a bit, because after all, this is the final week of the season and Francis has been one of the best pitchers in baseball down the stretch, with a 1.67 ERA and 0.50 WHIP, along with a respectable 52 punchouts and just under six walks in his last 54 IP. He's made seven straight good starts. Francis will face a depleted Boston Red Sox lineup that's missing 3B Rafael Devers and perhaps OF Tyler O'Neill.

• The next best potential spot starter poses a puzzle for Tampa Bay Rays RHP Ryan Pepiot in Motown against the Detroit Tigers. The rule of thumb is to rely on players and teams with something at stake, and the Tigers are looking to complete their improbable playoff push. Plus, they've been excellent against right-handed pitchers of late. However, Pepiot is coming off a dominant home outing against the Red Sox in which he recorded 12 strikeouts with no walks and allowed just one earned run on two hits in six stanzas. This outing feels more like a GPP DFS play than a traditional fantasy option.

• Even though the Milwaukee Brewers are in third place in the NL, there is no reason to limit RHP Tobias Myers (17.9% roster) in their thrilling road game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. In fact, Myers could be pitching for his spot in the Brewers' playoff rotation, so maximum effort is expected. The 26-year-old right-hander stepped up to help fill the void left by the Brewers trading Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff being sidelined while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Myers' 3.05 ERA is probably a bit low by estimates, but that's still in line with a league-average pitcher. On Tuesday, Myers faces a Pirates lineup with the 12th-lowest wOBA against right-handers in the previous month.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Discharge report

For the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers may be struggling with mild fatigue and who is most likely to snag a save or make a surprise hold in their place, check out the latest Closer Chart, updated each morning.

Hit report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with our Forecaster projections. Each day, we provide an updated 10-day preview for each team, predicting matchup quality for hitters (overall and by hand) and base stealers.

The best batsmen with less than 50% squad for Tuesday

The best and worst hitters of the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system developed by Derek Carty that uses modern methods used in MLB front offices, taking into account numerous factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, the catcher's pitch-framing strategy and more.

• Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF – 13%) at Ryan Feltner

• Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B – 45%) at Feltner

• Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS – 27%) against Michael McGreevy

• Byron Buxton (MIN, DH – 21%) vs. Ryan Weathers

• Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF – 5%) vs McGreevy

• Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B – 42%) vs. McGreevy

• Masyn Winn (STL, SS – 16%) at Feltner

• Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF – 11%) against Jack Kochanowicz

• Michael Toglia (COL, 1B – 8%) vs. McGreevy

• Kyle Manzardo (CLE, 1B – 2%) vs. Jakob Junis

The worst over 50% of the listed batsmen for Tuesday

• Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C – 53%) against Cole Ragans

• Eugenio Suarez (ARI, 3B – 51%) vs. Logan Webb

• Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS – 68%) vs. Dean Kremer

• Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS – 54%) vs. Bryce Miller

• Jordan Westburg (BAL, 2B – 51%) with Nestor Cortes

• Cedric Mullins (BAL, CF – 56%) at Cortes

• Riley Greene (DET, CF – 67%) vs. Ryan Pepiot

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI, LF – 71%) vs. Webb

• Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, RF – 91%) vs. Michael King

• Maikel Garcia (KC, 3B – 58%) at Mitchell Parker