Why TE Dalton Kincaid is the Bills' X-factor against the Jaguars despite a slow start

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When the Buffalo Bills face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night to conclude Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, they have an opportunity to jumpstart Dalton Kincaid's surprisingly slow start to the new season. It feels like cheating to label a player many expected to lead the Bills in faceoff targets as an X-factor, a relative unknown who will help determine the outcome of the game, but since he's only caught five balls so far, an exception will be made for the second-year tight end.

Kincaid's targets were generally over 100 to start the year, with some even reaching over 120, but after two weeks, Kincaid is averaging 3.0 targets per game. To reach 100 targets at this pace, he needs just over 31 more games. He's no math genius, but 31 games doesn't fit into a 17-game schedule. So is there reason for hope?

The simple answer is yes. That's simply because two games is an insanely small sample size, and Kincaid's performance can increase significantly from week to week compared to the first two weeks based on a variety of factors. One of those factors is how opposing defenses focus on Kincaid. In Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals, there were several times where Kincaid drew the attention of three defensive backs. There were even a few plays where four DBs ran at the talented pass receiver. These weren't crazy defensive strategies to shut down Kincaid, but he was clearly a focal point for the Cardinals' defenders, and they always had an eye on him and recognized his importance to the Bills' offense.

Teams aren't going to let Kincaid play like that every week, especially if the Bills' running game starts to dictate more and more to opponents. Some people complain about Joe Brady's increased use of the run, but if the Bills keep winning with that formula, teams will be forced to devote more resources to stopping the run game. That usually means going back to a base defense with at least three linebackers. That personnel should give the Bills more room to attack the middle of the field with the pass. Forcing defenses to choose between defending an effective running game and an effective passing game is the point of building a multi-dimensional offense like the Bills and Brandon Beane have been pursuing for years.

This week could see offense defenses that are better against the run game than Kincaid and the pass game. Jacksonville's pass coverage is led by their safeties Antonio Johnson and Andre Cisco. They are solid, if not very well known. The Jags are missing their best cover corner with Tyson Campbell's injury, and while former Bill Ronald Darby is a legitimate NFL cornerback, there are ways to attack their coverage beyond those positions. For example, look for the Bills to try to line up Curtis Samuel or Khalil Shakir against Jacksonville nickel defender Jarrian Jones, who has struggled against increasingly quick receivers so far this season.

Related: How a win or loss for the Bills in Week 3 would affect their standings in the AFC East

Finding the opponent's weak spots leads us to the Jaguars' linebackers in coverage. Devin Lloyd has performed well in limited testing in 2024, but his career in pass coverage suggests he should be targeted more often. Foyesade Oluokun is a reliable run defender, but in his seven-year career he allows an 80.5% completion rate for 9.5 yards per game. It's possible the Jags have turned these two into superior pass defenders, but the Bills should let them prove it multiple times before exploring other areas.

While the Jaguars aren't particularly weak in pass coverage, Kincaid could still break out this season based on talent alone. Despite his slow start, there are statistics that back up his ability.

Kincaid's 46 yards after contact is an insane number considering he only has five catches this season, meaning he averages 9.2 yards after contact PER CATCH. Kincaid has shown in his rookie year that he has an understanding of spacing and exceptional field awareness, which complements his toughness and ability to consistently gain more yards than expected. Kincaid regularly finds a way to drop forward for two more yards or lower his shoulder and stab between multiple defenders to grab an extra yard.

Finally, Kincaid could have a 10-target game at any time because of how Josh Allen takes care of his guys. The team and Allen know that Kincaid is extremely talented, a critical factor in their success this season, and should average more than three targets per game. Allen has repeatedly fed receivers, usually Stefon Diggs, when he knew a player deserved more attention. While that may have been a wheel-squeaking reaction for some players, it's also a demonstration of Allen's leadership in making his teammates feel connected and involved.

Although Kincaid is a familiar name in the Bills Mafia, his season has been disappointing through the first two weeks, but don't be surprised if he breaks out on Monday night.

Betting Market Line, Kincaid's receiving yards: 38.5, O -115, U-115*

X Factor Projected Line: 8 Tgts, 6 rec, 65+ yds

*Gambling data is for comparison purposes only.

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