Is the MWC about to be dissolved? UNLV now holds the key to the future in the battle between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West

Within a few hours on Monday, during one of the wildest days in the history of college sports realignment, the Mountain West, initially with its eight football members in a binding agreement, was on the verge of complete dissolution.

The Pac-12's rebuilding efforts could ultimately lead to the destruction of its sister conference if UNLV accepts the offer to join. Such a move could set off a domino effect that could lead to the dissolution of the Mountain West, presumably including the elimination of exit fees and other penalties for members who leave the conference.

Sources with knowledge of Mountain West policies spoke to Yahoo Sports about this possibility, which is known to many officials in both the MWC and Pac-12.

On Tuesday, attention will turn to a decision by UNLV, a university caught in the middle of this realignment madness – the potential pivotal point in the battle between the Pac-12 and Mountain West.

UNLV’s decision is likely to be significant for more than one reason.

The Rebels, for example, would be the eighth signing of the new Pac-12, the number the league needs to meet NCAA and CFP minimum requirements. They would join Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Fresno State and Utah State, making up the top half of the old Mountain West and the bottom of the old Pac-12.

UNLV's withdrawal would have further consequences: Mountain West membership would be reduced to six football members and five full members (Hawaii is a partial member and only competes in football).

UNLV's exit would likely force Air Force into more serious negotiations with the American Athletic Conference. AAC Commissioner Tim Pernetti has been negotiating with the school for over a week about taking over Air Force's football program as a partial member to join its military brethren Navy and Army.

If Air Force votes to leave, it would be the seventh member to leave the conference. Mountain West bylaws require the support of nine of the 12 football members to disband the conference.

In short, two of the five remaining Mountain West members – Wyoming, Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada and New Mexico – would have to vote to disband.

The question arises: Would the Pac-12 invite two of them to avoid more than $120 million in exit and penalty fees?

“That’s just how it works, honestly,” says a sports director who is familiar with the situation.

Such a step is bold. The dissolution of a league means the closure of the conference office, the dismissal of dozens of employees and the disappearance of the league brand itself.

Most expected that the Big Ten and Big 12's poaching of the Pac-12 would result in the utter destruction of that brand and the conference as a whole. Instead, that same conference is doing to the Mountain West what the bigger leagues have tried to do to it.

There are many more hurdles to overcome before that happens, but according to those who have discussed the matter, it remains more than just an unlikely possibility.

The first hurdle is a decision by UNLV, which in many ways controls the future of the Mountain West and the Pac-12's expansion decisions.

Late Monday, the Rebels expressed their commitment to the Mountain West, agreeing to terms that bind all eight remaining universities and secure the league's future. However, the agreement required the support of eight members to be a legally binding document (reminder: the FBS minimum is eight football-playing members).

In a stunning revelation, the Mountain West Conference office received signed agreements from seven of the eight schools, including UNLV, according to people familiar with the matter.

“Utah State waited for UNLV to sign before signing,” a Mountain West official said. “When UNLV signed, Utah State did not.”

Utah State's decision to leave the conference effectively voids the contract without an eighth member school. Any planned expansion of the Mountain West to eight members would likely require a new agreement.

In short, the Aggies' decision could set off a chain of events that leads to the total destruction of their old conference. Or UNLV officials could decide to stay with the Mountain West and accept a signing bonus of over $10 million, much of which would come from said departure fees that departing schools must pay to the MWC.

UNLV's decision comes with political strings attached. While it is not tied to its rival in the state of Nevada-Reno, a split from them could be problematic.

The Nevada System of Higher Education and its Board of Regents govern both schools and must approve decisions regarding conference affiliation. The state's current governor, Joe Lombardo, is a UNLV graduate. University of Nevada-Reno President Brian Sandoval is a two-term state governor who commands respect and power among the regents.

A decision from UNLV is expected soon, as early as Tuesday.

While Utah State's decision was not unexpected (USU received the Pac-12 expansion presentation last week), the Aggies' move was the culmination of a tumultuous day that began with AAC members Memphis, Tulane and South Florida receiving term sheets from the Pac-12.

A courting effort that began more than a week ago finally culminated in a more formal proposal. AAC school administrators balked at the terms: projected annual revenues of $10 million to $15 million, a five-year rights deal through 2030-31, and little financial support ($2.5 million per school) with an AAC exit fee potentially exceeding $20 million.

Their decision sent the Pac-12 back west to once again raid its little sister – a move that could ultimately lead to the conference's actual destruction.