Helene forecast: Intensifying tropical storm hits Atlanta and North Georgia

ATLANTA – The Southeast is bracing for the threat of a major hurricane that is forecast to move into the Florida Panhandle and through the heart of Georgia by the end of the week.

By 11:00 a.m. on Tuesday, the weather system had strengthened into Tropical Storm Helene and was moving further toward the Gulf of Mexico.

While the system will likely weaken to a tropical storm upon reaching the Atlanta metropolitan area, residents should monitor the weather closely and prepare now for possible strong winds, heavy rain, deadly lightning and even a possible tornado.

“At this point, I don't want you to postpone anything. I just want you to have a plan B in mind, especially for Thursday and Friday, if you have anything planned that requires you to be outside,” said Jonathan Stacey, meteorologist with the FOX 5 Storm Team.

Helene strengthens into a tropical storm in the Caribbean

The weather system is currently classified as a tropical storm as it continues to increase in strength and speed.

“This is one of those things where you take it step by step, it changes day by day, so every day we have more information to help us plan better,” Stacey said.

While the strength and intensity of this system remain uncertain, the track forecast continues to suggest that the system will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week, potentially causing significant impacts to the Atlanta metropolitan area and northern Georgia.

“It could well be a major Category 3 hurricane,” Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane expert at the center, said in a telephone interview. “People in the Florida Panhandle and on the west coast of Florida definitely need to be extra alert.”

Reinhart said it was too early to predict where the storm might make landfall. He warned there was “always some potential” that it could strengthen into a Category 4 storm, but added that was not the most likely outcome.

“The forecast is quite aggressive and will continue to worsen in the coming days,” he said. “People need to remain on high alert.”

The very high sea temperatures will favor the formation of a tropical storm, which is forecast to quickly develop into a hurricane due to favorable conditions such as a moist atmosphere that favors the formation of thunderstorms and light winds at altitudes above 3,000 meters, Reinhart said.

The storm group was located about 270 kilometers off the western tip of Cuba on Tuesday morning. It had maximum sustained winds of 72 km/h and was moving northwest at 19 km/h.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge and the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A hurricane warning is currently in effect for Tampa Bay and other parts of Florida. Officials with the National Hurricane Center say more warnings and watches will likely be issued throughout Tuesday.

Helene's timing and threat in Atlanta

The potential window of impact for the Atlanta metropolitan area is currently forecast to begin as early as Wednesday night and extend through Saturday, with Thursday and Friday being the most likely periods. However, as forecast models continue to develop, this time frame will be refined. Keep an eye on the latest updates as the system evolves.

Given the size and potential path of this system, there are several potential hazards for our region, including heavy rain and flash flooding. Flooding may also occur, particularly in low-lying or flood-prone areas. Some models are showing rainfall amounts of up to 6 inches, with isolated cases reaching 10 inches.

Strong gusts could knock down trees and power lines, leading to isolated power outages and brief tornadoes. As the system moves inland, isolated tornadoes may also form.

It's important to remember that tropical systems can have widespread impacts, with effects felt far from the center. Don't just focus on the storm's path; conditions can worsen long before it arrives.

“At this point, the cone has shifted back to the west. You'll hear me saying all week that a western solution would be the worst outcome for us,” Stacey said. “An eastern solution is the better outcome for us here in North Georgia because it's on the left side of the storm and we'll likely avoid the brunt of the storm's biggest impacts.”

Stacey says the cone is likely to move throughout the week, so residents should be extra vigilant.

As the storm gains strength, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp is urging people to make their preparations now and pay attention to local authorities and new sources.

“Continue to pay attention to the weather and make preparations for yourself and your loved ones,” Kemp wrote on X.

Helene will be the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year due to record-high ocean temperatures. It is forecasting 17 to 25 named storms, including four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.