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a hurricane and a cold front will soon bring rain

Tuesday brings scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front, but Wednesday and Thursday bring numerous storms and the threat of flooding. For the latest, see the video forecast. WATCHING THE GULF Tropical Storm Helene formed in the Caribbean Tuesday morning. Where will it move? The current track forecasts landfall near Florida's Big Bend, but without a closed circulation center, that forecast may change and shift in the coming days. Although the exact track is still uncertain, coastal areas from Panama City Beach to Tampa should brace themselves for potentially rapid intensification as the system is forecast to move northward toward the Gulf Coast. The most likely scenario is landfall in Florida's Big Bend: east of Panama City. How strong will it get? The atmosphere will be charged and the extremely warm Gulf waters will be ready to fuel an intensifying storm Wednesday into Thursday. The current forecast puts it at Category 3 before landfall. That's a major hurricane. Predicting intensity can be difficult, so be sure to check back for the most up-to-date information as the system moves northward across the Gulf. Some forecast models are predicting rapid intensification. Rapid intensification occurs when a storm's maximum wind speed increases by 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours or less. How will this impact Alabama? The currently forecast track would keep central Alabama on the west side of the storm. Weather varies greatly on the two sides of the storm. The west side of the storm is usually drier and the danger is lower, but we expect to be close enough to have windy, wet weather on both Thursday and Friday of this week. The Weather Prediction Center has already predicted that large parts of Alabama, Georgia and Florida are at risk of flooding from Wednesday into Friday morning. ANOTHER HOT DAYWe'll have one more day of temperatures in the 30s on Tuesday before the combination of a cold front and a northward-moving tropical system causes temperatures to drop and increases the chance of rain and thunderstorms later this week.Tuesday will be hot and mostly dry, with some isolated thunderstorms in the forecast before the cold front moves in during the afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms in northern Alabama and Tennessee could be severe, with gusty winds and some hail. The approach of the front will stir up more isolated thunderstorms in northern Alabama on Tuesday. This makes places like Cullman, Hamilton, Russellville, The Shoals, Decatur and Huntsville more likely to receive downpours than the Birmingham area.SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAYA cold front will linger over Alabama Wednesday, and some severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening will take advantage of the approaching tropical moisture from the south.Some thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon could briefly become severe, with gusty winds, small hail, heavy lightning and torrential downpours. The greatest danger from these severe storms will be near and east of Interstate 65, including the Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, Sylacauga, Clanton and Alexander City areas. These severe storms may result in localized flooding.TROPICAL WEATHERBased on the latest forecast, heavy rains will move from Helene into Alabama Thursday into Friday morning. We will mark Thursday and Friday as Impact Days. We're calling any day an Impact Day when the weather could force you to change your routine.That doesn't always mean severe or destructive weather. In this case, we're pointing out windy, rainy weather on the likely western side of the tropical system.Both Thursday and Friday will see wind gusts over 20 mph and occasional tropical downpours. Localized flooding is also possible. Especially in areas east of I-65.WEEKEND WEATHERThe upcoming weekend is a major event for central Alabama. Fiesta Birmingham is on Saturday. Alabama hosts Georgia on Saturday night, while Oklahoma visits Auburn and UAB faces Navy at home. We're not expecting any events to be canceled entirely due to rain, but a weaker, slow-moving tropical depression nearby will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daytime highs will be between 21 and 25 degrees, with little sunshine. For the latest Birmingham weather information and the most certified accurate weather forecast for Central Alabama, check out WVTM 13 News. Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram.

There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front on Tuesday, but numerous storms are expected on Wednesday and Thursday and there is a risk of flooding. For the latest information, see the video forecast.

WATCHING THE GULF

Tropical Storm Helene formed in the Caribbean on Tuesday morning.

Where will it go? The current track forecasts a landfall near the Great Bend of Florida, but without a closed center of circulation, this forecast may change and shift in the coming days. Although the exact track is still uncertain, coastal areas from Panama City Beach to Tampa should prepare for potentially rapid intensification as the system is expected to move north toward the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Helene PTC 8 Track

The most likely scenario is a landing in Florida's Big Bend: east of Panama City.

How strong will it be? The atmosphere will be firing on all cylinders and the extremely warm waters of the Gulf will be ready to produce an intensifying storm Wednesday into Thursday. The current forecast calls for it to reach Category 3 before landfall. This is a major hurricane. Predicting intensity can be difficult, so be sure to check back for the latest updates as the system moves northward in the Gulf.

Some forecast models predict rapid intensification. Rapid intensification occurs when a storm's peak wind speed increases by 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours or less.

Tropics

What impact will it have on Alabama? The current forecast track would keep central Alabama on the west side of the storm. The weather is very different on either side of the storm. The west side of the storm is usually drier and the danger is lower, but we expect to be close enough to have windy, wet weather on both Thursday and Friday of this week.

forecast

The Weather Forecast Center has already predicted that large parts of Alabama, Georgia and Florida are at risk of flooding from Wednesday through Friday morning.

ANOTHER HOT DAY

On Tuesday we will have another day with temperatures around 30 degrees, before a combination of a cold front and a tropical system moving north causes temperatures to drop and the risk of rain and thunderstorms to increase later in the week.

forecast

Tuesday will be hot and mostly dry, with a few isolated thunderstorms in the forecast before the cold front moves in during the afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms in northern Alabama and Tennessee could be severe, bringing gusty winds and some hail.

The approach of the front will trigger more isolated thunderstorms in northern Alabama on Tuesday, so places like Cullman, Hamilton, Russellville, The Shoals, Decatur and Huntsville are more likely to see rain showers than the Birmingham area.

Weather forecast for Alabama

SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY

A cold front will linger over Alabama on Wednesday, and some severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening will take advantage of tropical moisture moving in from the south.

Weather forecast for Alabama

Some thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon could briefly become severe, with gusty winds, small hail, heavy lightning and torrential rain. The greatest danger from these severe storms is near and east of Interstate 65, including the Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, Sylacauga, Clanton and Alexander City areas. These severe storms may cause localized flooding.

TROPICAL WEATHER

The latest forecast calls for heavy rains from Helene to move into Alabama Thursday into Friday morning.

We'll highlight Thursday and Friday as “Impact Days.” We're designating any day where the weather might cause you to change your routine as an Impact Day.

forecast

It doesn't always have to mean severe or destructive weather. In this case, we're suggesting windy, rainy weather, likely on the western side of the tropical system.

Both Thursday and Friday will see wind gusts over 20 miles per hour and occasional tropical rain showers. Localized flooding is also possible, particularly in areas east of I-65.

WEEKEND WEATHER

This coming weekend is a big event weekend in Central Alabama. Fiesta Birmingham takes place on Saturday.

Alabama hosts Georgia on Saturday night, while Oklahoma visits Auburn and UAB faces Navy at home.

We don't expect any events to be cancelled out entirely by rain, but a weaker, slow-moving tropical depression nearby will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Daytime highs will be between 21 and 25 degrees, with little sunshine.

For the latest weather information for Birmingham and the most reliable weather forecast for Central Alabama, check out WVTM 13 News.

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