Track Tropical Storm Helene, impacts

In a hurry? Here’s what’s happening with Tropical Storm Helene in less than a minute.

Hurricane watches and warnings have been issued across Florida as Tropical Storm Helene continues to strengthen, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Time is running out to complete preparations for what is expected to be a major hurricane by the time it makes landfall Thursday.

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene

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Current predictions have Helene rapidly intensifying as it moves north in the Gulf of Mexico. Winds could get up to 120 mph over the next 36 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center. That would make Helene a Category 3 hurricane.

AccuWeather forecasters are predicting Helene could reach Category 4 strength as it moves into the extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds ranging between 130 and 156 mph.

Where will Tropical Storm Helene make landfall?

Landfall is expected along the northeast coast of the Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Thursday night, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The highest landfall probability is somewhere along the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle — perhaps in the Big Bend area — late Thursday evening, according to AccuWeather.

A possible track farther to the southeast, over the Florida Peninsula, could mean an earlier landfall Thursday.

“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, adding the system has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.

“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”

Don’t focus on the cone! Helene is large storm, impacts will be widespread

Tropical Storm Helene is expected to grow even larger before it makes landfall Thursday and impacts can be expected hundreds of miles from the center.

“This can be a large hurricane with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall,” Porter said.

“Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side,” the National Hurricane Center said.

“In addition, the fast forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.”

Most of Florida under state of emergency

Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded a state of emergency Tuesday to 61 of Florida’s 67 counties, including all of the Florida Panhandle.

Counties under the state of emergency are: Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.

Tropical Storm Helene: What you need to know

Location: 45 miles east-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico; 120 southwest of the western tip of Cuba
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph
Movement: northwest at 9 mph
Pressure: 985 mb
Next advisory: 5 a.m.

Watches, warnings issued across Florida as Tropical Storm Helene approaches

➤ Florida won’t be able to dodge Helene

➤ Live updates: Get the latest on Tropical Storm Helene

Hurricane warning:

Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane watch:

Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Storm surge warning:

Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
Tampa Bay
Charlotte Harbor

A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

Tropical storm warning:

Dry Tortugas
All of the Florida Keys
The Florida west coast from Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
The Florida east coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River
Lake Okeechobee
Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch:

The Georgia and South Carolina coast north of the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River

An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

How strong is Tropical Storm Helene and where is it going?

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.2 West.

Helene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. This motion should continue through this morning, followed by a general northward motion beginning later today and continuing through Friday.

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On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on later today and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph, with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today.

The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 985 mb.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

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Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Helene

Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.
Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area on Thursday.
Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of Florida, the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley beginning today through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible.

Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Helene going and how strong could it get?

As of 5 a.m.: 65 mph
12 hours: 80 mph
24 hours: 105 mph
36 hours: 120 mph
48 hours: 75 mph
60 hours: 35 mph
72 hours: 25 mph
96 hours: 25 mph
120 hours: dissipated

What impact could Tropical Storm Helene have and what areas could be affected?

Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours, with tropical storm conditions already ongoing. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of Cuba later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in Cuba during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in southern Florida later today and spreading northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday and Thursday night.

Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft
Tampa Bay…5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft

➤ Why is a storm surge so dangerous?

Rainfall: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

Surf: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday.

Tornadoes: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

See new ‘cone of concern’ with Helene

The National Hurricane Center first launched its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14.

Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn’t see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.

Track Tropical Storm Helene, impacts

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