Selenskyj hopes for Biden's support for the “victory plan” for Ukraine

As Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky prepares to present a “victory plan” to President Joe Biden on Thursday, Kyiv is hoping for a strong sign of support from the US president before he leaves the White House.

A senior official in Kyiv said they wanted him to “make history” in his final months in office.

While details of the Ukrainian plan have been kept secret, the strategy is likely to include requests for further military and financial support as well as future security guarantees.

Zelensky says the agreement is intended as a “bridge” to ending the war, which he believes could end sooner than people think.

If the West strengthens Ukraine's position, he argues, Russian President Vladimir Putin could be pressured into a diplomatic peace.

“This war cannot be calmed by talks. Action is needed,” he told the UN Security Council late Tuesday.

Ever keen on public relations, the Ukrainian president is also seeking to counter critics in the United States who have questioned the wisdom of providing more money to Ukraine's cause, and is apparently promoting a plan for eventual peace.

Zelensky is making great diplomatic efforts to implement his victory plan.

He has practically set up camp at the United Nations. On Monday he spoke at a debate on how the UN should be reformed. On Tuesday he spoke to the Security Council. And on Wednesday he will give a speech to the General Assembly.

In between, he meets with heads of state and government from all over the world and with US politicians. In Scranton, Joe Biden's hometown in Pennsylvania, he visited an ammunition factory that produces shells for Ukrainian artillery batteries.

And he makes it clear that he thinks time is running out. In one of his numerous media interviews, Zelensky told the New Yorker that the victory plan must be agreed in October, November and December and that Ukraine must be strengthened.

“This plan is primarily designed for Biden's support,” he told the magazine. That support is by no means guaranteed, but Zelensky is betting big on securing it.

The situation would change significantly if Donald Trump were to win the election. At a campaign rally on Monday, former President Zelenskyj derided him as “the greatest salesman in history” because “every time he comes to this country, he leaves with $60 billion.”

Trump reiterated his stance that he would push Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement to end the war. Kiev fears that the war would force the country to lose territory and would not provide any guarantee against further Russian aggression.

It is the fear of such a scenario that is driving the diplomatic efforts behind Zelensky's victory plan this week. Some diplomats are skeptical that the plan could bring Russia to the negotiating table. Much now depends on Biden's response.

The plan will be presented to members of Congress as well as to Trump and his presidential rival Kamala Harris.

Trump had declared that he would end the war within 24 hours. This raised fears that the Republican presidential candidate would essentially force Kiev to make territorial concessions against its will.

With the US elections looming, this is a crucial moment for Zelensky as Moscow's troops in eastern Ukraine continue to gain ground bit by bit.

One of the top priorities of the so-called victory plan will be to “hit Russia hard,” believes military analyst Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network.

If Kyiv is given the opportunity to destroy military infrastructure within a 300 km radius, this could seriously hamper the Kremlin's offensive operations in Donbass and its ability to “neutralize” Ukraine's ongoing incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Samus says.

This would mean obtaining the previously denied permission to use Western-made long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russia.

Although Ukraine successfully uses attack drones against Russian ammunition depots, more heavily fortified ammunition depots can also be penetrated by missiles.

The plan will also lead to Kyiv requesting more missiles of this type, believes Olga Rudenko, editor-in-chief of the Kyiv Independent.

Further financial support and exploiting Ukraine's surprise cross-border advance into Russia's Kursk region are also expected to be key elements of the strategy.

As for future security guarantees for Ukraine, the country's aspirations to join NATO's military defense alliance remain clear.

“The invitation of Ukraine to NATO is part of the victory plan,” confirmed Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office.

Zelensky's office has dismissed as a “fake” a German report that he was considering a local ceasefire.

However, Czech President Petr Pavel – a vocal supporter of Ukraine – said this week that part of Ukraine would likely remain occupied “temporarily,” possibly for years.

Olga Rudenko believes that for most Ukrainians it is still “too delicate and unimaginable to make even temporary concessions to Russia” – even if this conversation takes place somewhere, in secret, within the government.

“It’s not that the Ukrainians are greedy for the area,” she says.

“We cannot leave our people under Russian control and condemn them to these atrocities,” he said, referring to ongoing allegations of Russian war crimes.

This was also the opinion of 31-year-old Dmytro, who suffered severe burns to his face and arms when he was hit by a Russian drone.

“We will not give up our territories for which so many people have fallen,” he told the BBC in Kyiv.

“If we ended the war at this point, what were we fighting for? What did all our men, our comrades, die for?”

He believes that a ceasefire would only give Russia time to recover. Zelensky also warned against a “frozen” conflict.

Dmytro is already planning his return to the front to fight alongside his comrades: “I will not retreat. I will stay there until my last breath.”