Hunt for wildcards in the AL: The Tigers' magic number for playoff spots is decreasing

DETROIT – The most important thing for the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday afternoon was the win.

But some things that happened after their 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays were also quite helpful.

The Tigers (83-74) currently occupy the last wild-card spot in the American League. The Minnesota Twins (81-76), who the Tigers have been chasing for most of September, are now two full games back after a loss to the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night.

The Kansas City Royals (83-74) finally ended a seven-game losing streak with a 10-inning win at Washington. The Royals would hold the second wild-card spot if the season ended today because they have the head-to-head tiebreaker against Detroit.

There are plenty of complicated and unlikely scenarios to sift through, but if you want to cut through the noise, here's the clearest: The Tigers' magic number is four.

If the combination of Tigers wins and Twins losses equals four, the Tigers have secured a spot.

In this training, when the Tigers go, it means:

5:0: You are in
4:1: You are in
3-2: The Twins must go 5-0 to overtake them
2-3: Twins must go 4-1
1-4: Twins must go 3-2
0-5: Twins must go 2-3

The Tigers could win on Thursday evening at the earliest.

WILD CARD STANDARDS

(The complete ranking can be found here)

The Red Sox have won four in a row, but that's probably too little, too late. To overtake the Tigers, they would have to finish the season with four more wins and then get a lot of help.

The Mariners are in a slightly better position, but suffered a costly loss to Houston on Tuesday night.

CURRENT PLAYOFF CHANCES (Wildcard Candidates)

The Rays (78-79) are functionally but not officially eliminated. They would need to finish 5-0 – including two wins against the Tigers this week – and get significant help from four teams ahead of them.

PLAYOFF SEEDS

The Orioles have secured a playoff spot, but not a No. 1 wild card spot. There is still a very small, but not impossible, chance for the Tigers to move into the first wild card spot if the Orioles falter in the final games.

But if the season ended today, the best-of-three Wild Card Series would look like this:

• Detroit (Wild Card No. 3) at Houston (Division Winner No. 1)
• Kansas City (Wild Card #2) at Baltimore (Wild Card #1)

The top two division winners – the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians – would receive a bye.

REMAINING SCHEDULE

The Tigers probably have the easiest final week of the season; the Orioles could have the toughest.

oriole: at the New York Yankees (2 games), at Minnesota (3 games)

Royal: in Washington (2 games), in Atlanta (3 games)

tiger: Tampa Bay (2 games), Chicago White Sox (3 games)

Twins: Miami (2 games), Baltimore (3 games)

Sailors: in Houston (1 game), in Oakland (3 games)

Ray: in Detroit (2 games), in Boston (3 games)

Red Sox: in Toronto (1 game), Tampa Bay (3 games)

TIEBREAKER

There are eleven possible tiebreaker scenarios between the four closest teams: the Tigers, Twins, Royals and Mariners.

The Twins are in the strongest position, having won the season series against all three other teams. The Mariners are in the weakest position. The Royals would beat the Tigers in a head-to-head matchup, but including the Mariners in a three-team matchup could give Detroit the advantage.

Tiebreaker between two teams:

Twins about Royals

Royals vs Tigers

Gemini over Tiger

Twins beat Mariners

Tigers beat Mariners

Royals beat Mariners

The Royals and Mariners were tied in the season series, but the Royals won the tiebreaker between the two teams based on their record within the division.

However, the fact that the Royals and Mariners tied their season series would impact the three- and four-team games and potentially benefit the Tigers.

Tiebreaker for three teams:

Gemini, Royals, Tiger

Twins, Royals, Mariners

Tigers, Royals, Mariners

Twins, Tigers, Mariners

Tiebreaker for four teams:

Twins, Tigers, Royals, Mariners