The Cowboys' games under Mike McCarthy have shown a clear trend – one that could make or break the Giants

As Tom Brady watched the Dallas Cowboys' offense try to climb out of a 28-6 hole in the third quarter, the seven-time Super Bowl champion acknowledged that his analysis might sound trite.

“To say, 'We want to start quickly,' of course we know that,” Brady said.

He then explained why getting an early head start means more than just a more relaxing day at the office.

“You can play on your terms; Their entire playbook is useful,” Brady said last weekend during the Cowboys’ eventual loss to the Baltimore Ravens. “At this point in the game [the Cowboys] I don’t have the whole playbook. You basically have some downhill runs and then dropback passes, which helps the strength of this defense.”

The Cowboys' game formulas regularly reflected big scoring opportunities during head coach Mike McCarthy's tenure.

Since McCarthy's arrival in 2020, the team has recorded a lead or deficit of at least 14 in 48 of the 70 games, a Yahoo Sports analysis of Pro Football Reference data found.

All three of their games in 2024 fell into this category.

The Cowboys' Week 1 win over the Cleveland Browns was their 28th win in 29 games in which they led by at least 14 under McCarthy.

Dallas' Weeks 2 and 3 losses to the New Orleans Saints and Ravens resulted in 17 losses in 19 games, trailing by 14 or more at any point.

In short, if you take an early lead, the Cowboys win overwhelmingly. They fall behind early and the Cowboys have narrow deficits but can rarely overcome them.

Dallas' strength going forward and its fight to retake the lead speaks to more than just the psychological impact of a one-sided game or the apparent relative strength of an opponent.

The trends also reflect how scoring margins affect play-callers more generally and how much the Cowboys' approach to roster construction has influenced their ability to respond to any situation.

As the Cowboys return to MetLife Stadium on Thursday night, a year after defeating the New York Giants 40-0 and 49-17 in their two meetings, Dallas is fresh off two weeks and getting a taste of its own medicine. Every NFC East team knows how much the start of the game will influence the outcome.

“We have to find a way to be better in the game and start the game better,” Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said. “Doing the things we do at a high level … earlier and putting pressure on the defense. If we can do that, then we can run, we can play action, we can do whatever we want.

“I’m looking forward to that.”

What would an early swing mean for the Cowboys and Giants playmakers?

The Cowboys lost by 25 points to the Saints two weeks ago before trailing by 22 points in the third quarter against the Ravens.

So the offensive play selection has taken a big hit.

“We were behind, we were talking about no-huddle and two minutes in the middle of the third quarter,” McCarthy said. “We need to do more running, we need to introduce and exit concepts, and I think that alone will help us.”

What kinds of concepts might the Cowboys be able to incorporate better without the deficit?

Teams differ in how they account for situational football and at what point their game plan begins to shrink due to goal margin.

But one NFC assistant coach estimated that “two-thirds of your stuff is out the window” when a more rushed attack comes into play. The simplified playbook begins with Brady's description of dropback passes and downhill runs, but doesn't end there.

“If you are in two-minute mode and operating at the edge of the battle, your movements and movements are lost,” said the NFC assistant. “All your cover credentials are lost because you don’t have time to wave your butt out and see who’s traveling with them; You just have to line up and go.”

Time becomes too valuable to spend replacing staff packages or communicating in detail before each snap. Not only are running plays disappearing, but some passing plays that involve running also appear in the original game plan.

“You don't have the luxury of being able to take every single snapshot for 40 seconds,” said another NFC assistant. “You need chunks. You have to eat up some ground quickly.”

There were differing opinions on how quickly a team should switch to a rush offense when facing a deficit, with the scale typically fluctuating from the third to the fourth quarter and from a two- to three-point deficit.

But it's no secret how desperate defenses are for their teams to take an early lead. On “Thursday Night Football” last week, Aaron Rodgers raised eyebrows when he shoved New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh and said something that at first seemed understandable.

The magic word: “Two-point lead.”

The scoring margin has a drastic effect on the Cowboys defense

In the Jets' locker room last Thursday at MetLife, offensive players knew why Rodgers was so anxious to communicate the 14-0 lead to his head coach.

Saleh often spoke of that threshold as the point at which he frees up his pass rush to chase more, and that his secondary is eager to take advantage, which becomes more likely on obvious passes.

Still, the Jets' 14-point lead last week against the Patriots was only the seventh game in Saleh's four seasons in which they reached that margin. In comparison, the Cowboys had led by 14 points in 27 games during that period.

“It's something we haven't done a lot and we've put our defense in tough situations in the three years I've been here,” receiver Garrett Wilson said. “So that's what we've been emphasizing all week: Let's get started quickly and see what happens. Seven bags. The [opponent is] falls back and has to pass the ball on.

“Something like that can happen.”

The Cowboys know this all too well. When they take the lead, it's not just McCarthy's play-call sheet that's jubilant.

Dallas' defense shines most when Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Co. can rush the passer, a strength that the Saints and Ravens initially largely neutralized by running more than passing and then building such a lead early that they didn't have to fit much.

Consider that Parsons, an All-Pro, rushed the passer just 17 and 15 times in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively, after wreaking havoc on 48 rushes in Cleveland.

“When you're that far up or down, you look at the trends,” New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll said this week. “Games are called different things depending on how things go in the game.”

The Cowboys lead the league in limiting opponents with a 32.8% success rate when attacking four defenders.

But they rank last in defending the run – measured by yardage, scoring and efficiency.

The Giants will look to avoid the early hole they fell into during their 2023 Cowboys matchups to exploit a clear weakness.

“We just want to play complementary football,” Giants outside linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux said. “We have to make stops and the offense will continue to do its best to score points.

“And so we’ll end up releasing one.”