Iranian analysts believe that Iran will not join the fight between Israel and Hezbollah

The front pages of Iranian newspapers on the third day of Israel's deadly and indiscriminate airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon offered a stark contrast to what usually follows such incidents. Even the most conservative publications refrained from using images of civilian casualties or the destruction left by Israel's indiscriminate attacks.

Instead of focusing on the losses suffered by Hezbollah, Iran's main ally in the region, pro-reform and moderate dailies focused on President Masoud Pezeshkian's speech to the United Nations and emphasized his message of de-escalation to the world.

The Kayhan dailyAlso, whose editor-in-chief is appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, avoided images of war victims. Instead, Khamenei was quoted as saying, “The ultimate winner of the war will be Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance,” using the term commonly used by the Iranian establishment to refer to its military allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen .

Other conservative publications, such as Javanesefunded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hamshahri, Iran, and Jame Jam similarly focused on Khamenei's assurance of final victory without addressing the human toll of the conflict.

While these publications serve as a barometer and offer subtle insights into power dynamics in Iran, domestic analysts also highlighted the significant costs of war with Israel. They suggested that Iran was unlikely to respond quickly to the devastating attack on Hezbollah.

Nosratollah Tajik, the former Iranian ambassador to Jordan, is one of the most senior analysts who ruled out the possibility of Iran entering the war, saying that if Iran had intended to do so, it would have acted much sooner.

“Many might suggest that Iran should immediately engage in direct military conflict with Israel. However, this perspective is wrong and not necessarily the right approach,” he was quoted as saying.

Tajik stressed that such a scenario contradicts Iran's long-standing strategy of arming and training its military allies.

“If Iran had sought direct conflict to secure its interests or create deterrence in the Middle East, it would not have invested so much in supporting resistance forces to achieve its goals,” he added.

According to the former diplomat, Iran would rather mobilize the international community against Israel.

Other foreign policy experts such as Mohammad Khajooei have also advised the Iranian establishment to avoid a military confrontation with Israel.

Khajooei, an Iranian Middle East expert, wrote an op-ed titled: “Iran must not enter into a military conflict with Israel.”

He argued that Iran must approach the situation pragmatically and not be driven by excitement or idealism.

“It must be made clear: Iran should not only avoid direct military conflict with Israel, but also work immediately to ensure Hezbollah's graceful withdrawal from the recent war and prevent further damage. “Iran must not allow Lebanon to become another Gaza Strip, and Hezbollah must not suffer the same fate as Hamas,” he wrote.

Another prominent Iranian foreign policy expert, Hassan Lasjerdi, also stated that a military response is not always the most effective option and that Iran is likely to explore other political and economic strategies.

He stressed that Tehran intends to keep Tel Aviv on tenterhooks, adding: “Iran is committed to keeping the Zionist regime prepared for its next move in the political arena and ensuring that it always expects calculated actions from our side. “

Even conservative analysts like Hossein Raviravan believe that Tehran has no desire for direct war with Israel after Tel Aviv's attacks on Lebanon.

In an interview with the Khabar Online Raviravan said on his website that Iran would refrain from participating in the conflict as long as Hezbollah can defend itself.

When asked whether this fight is expanding, the Islamic Republic will answer [of Iran] Raviravan emphasized that this will also be involved: “I think that is very unlikely.”