Information from the UK: Russia continues to force conscripts into service contracts to fight in Ukraine, although turnover is high

The British Ministry of Defense's intelligence report dated September 27 suggests that the reactions of the families of Russian conscripts could raise the Kremlin's awareness of the sensitivity surrounding the use of conscripts on the front lines, particularly in Ukraine. Still, Russia is likely to continue pressuring conscripts to sign contracts after their service to maintain troop levels despite high turnover rates, the report said.

Russia's fall enlistment cycle begins October 1, 2024 and requires all men under 30 to serve for one year. While Russian leaders assured that conscripts would not be sent to Ukraine, some were sent to fight in Kursk before completing the legally required four months of training, raising concerns among parents.

The ministry wrote:

• Russia's fall enlistment cycle begins October 1, 2024. All eligible Russian men under the age of 30 must complete one year of military service. So far, no conscripts have been sent to fight in Ukraine. Since the war began in February 2022, Russian leaders have stated that no conscripts will be sent to the front.
• However, conscripts were used in the military operation in Kursk in August 2024. In response, some parents expressed concerns that their sons were being sent into combat after less than four months of service. Legally, conscripts can serve in a combat zone if they have served four months and received training in an appropriate specialization.
• The reaction of conscripts' families to their deployment to defend mainland Russia is likely to increase the sensitivity of the Russian leadership to sending conscripts to Ukraine itself. However, Russia is likely to continue forcing conscripts to sign contracts after completing their service in defiance to ensure a constant supply of personnel for the war due to the high fluctuation rates.

Previously, ISW noted that Russia is centralizing volunteer recruitment amid manpower struggles in its war in Ukraine, with Putin favoring volunteer operations over mobilization due to concerns about societal backlash and regime stability. ISW also reported that Russia is targeting victory over Ukraine by 2026 amid growing economic challenges.

Related: