MLB playoff race: Decisive scenarios in the final weekend

Good morning, I'm Dan Gartland. I'm back after a vacation that included one of mine Favorite sports experiences for years.

In today's SI:AM:

😢 A's say goodbye to Oakland
✅ NFL picks for Week 4
📺 Netflix's new Vince McMahon documentary

When MLB expanded the playoff field to 12 teams ahead of the 2022 season, one of the goals was to keep more teams alive in the postseason hunt for longer. And the format succeeded in this respect. According to Fangraphs, as of August 1, 20 of the majors' 30 teams had at least a 9% chance of making the playoffs. But most of those teams quickly fell out of contention and, entering the final weekend of the season, the playoff field is mostly set. Eight of the twelve places have already been taken, only six teams are chasing the remaining four places. Here you can find out what else there is to win.

The NL wildcard chaos

The decision on the most interesting race will take another day. The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are two of the three teams (along with the Arizona Diamondbacks) fighting for the final two NL wild card spots and were supposed to meet in Atlanta earlier this week for a three-game series to possibly see that race to decide. However, the impact of Hurricane Helene on the Southeast significantly disrupted the schedule.

The Mets and Braves were able to play Tuesday's game as scheduled – a 5-1 win for Atlanta. But games on Wednesday and Thursday were postponed and rescheduled as part of a doubleheader on Monday, a day after the originally scheduled final day of the regular season.

However, with a little better planning, MLB could have avoided the doubleheader. One option would have been to play at least one of the games last Monday, which was a day off for both teams. Changing the schedule would have required a long lead time, but at that point it was already clear that the impending storm would make it very difficult to play the games on Wednesday and Thursday. The league also failed to take advantage of Wednesday's clear skies and instead opted to hold that evening's game at the originally scheduled 7:00 p.m. start time. By this time the weather had deteriorated and there was no choice but to postpone the game.

The worst thing about the doubleheader is that it will take place on what is supposed to be an off day before the start of the postseason. It's possible — depending on what happens with the D-backs over the weekend — that the Braves and Mets play two games in Atlanta on Monday, both teams qualify for the playoffs, and then one team has to get on the plane immediately afterward their postseason series the next day in Milwaukee, while the others have to fly across the country to San Diego for their first series.

As for the standings, the Mets (87-70) and D-Backs (88-71) are now tied for the remaining two playoff spots, while the Braves are one game behind at 86-71. However, Atlanta currently holds the tiebreaker over both teams and is guaranteed to retain the tiebreaker over the D-Backs regardless of what happens last weekend. The Mets also hold the tiebreaker over the D-Backs.

All three competitors play against top teams this weekend. Arizona will close the season with three games against the San Diego Padres, who don't have much to play for after the Los Angeles Dodgers won the NL West on Thursday night. (San Diego is locked in the top NL wild-card spot.) The Braves play the Kansas City Royals, who need just one win to secure a wild-card spot. The Mets play against the Milwaukee Brewers, who are third in the NL as champions of the Central Division.

The fact that New York and Atlanta have five games left to play while Arizona only has three makes it difficult to outline all decision-making scenarios, but the fate of all three teams will be much clearer on Sunday, potentially setting the stage for one De facto playoff with two games in Atlanta on Monday.

The AL field is mostly set

The AL wild card race is much less interesting. The Baltimore Orioles have already secured the top spot, while the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals occupy the next two spots with identical records of 85-74. The Minnesota Twins are still clinging to hope at 82-77, but must win all three games against Baltimore this weekend and hope that either Kansas City or Detroit are defeated. It's unlikely, but not impossible.

The race for home advantage

All six division races have already been decided, but the top teams in each league still have a lot to offer. The New York Yankees (93-66) and Cleveland Guardians (92-67) are in a neck-and-neck race for home field advantage in the AL playoffs. The Yankees hold the tiebreaker and can therefore secure victory with at least two wins this weekend against the Pittsburgh Pirates or at least two Cleveland losses against the Houston Astros. In the Netherlands, it's the Dodgers (95-64) and the Philadelphia Phillies (94-65) hoping to secure home field. The Phillies trail by one game but retain the tiebreaker. Of those four teams, only the Guardians are out of contention for baseball's best record and home field advantage in the World Series.

…things I saw last night:

5. Aaron Judges fifth straight game with a home run. He now has 58 points on the season and has three games left.
4. The sophistication of the Giants Double fake screen pass.
3. Giants rookie Malik Nabers' ankle-breaking route That sent a Cowboys defender stumbling to the ground.
2. Shohei Ohtani Struggling to put on his safety glasses during the Dodgers clubhouse celebration. Can you blame him? This is the first time in his career that he has something to celebrate.
1. A's manager Mark Kotsay's Message to Oakland fans after the last game in the Colosseum.