Who would win MLB MVP? Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. make their case

Unlike most other professional sports leagues, Major League Baseball has long had two MVPs. They are divided into the American League and the National League.

This has been the case annually since 1924, although there were already MVPs in 1911. For decades, splitting up the league made perfect sense. The two leagues did not play against each other at all. Unlike the World Series, they were completely separate and the awards were for the regular season. So why shouldn't there be awards for every team?

These days, with year-round interleague play, it makes a lot less sense. It is also tradition and I am not in favor of changing it. I like to split it up. But what if we didn't? What if there was just an MLB MVP?

With a quick shout out to Bobby Witt Jr., it seems like the majority of the debate revolves around Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani.

We already had one like that. Judge won the 2022 MVP, Ohtani finished second and the discussions over the last six weeks have been heated. Ohtani won the 2021 and 2023 AL MVPs, but now he's in the NL. Both will earn MVP honors this season, with Ohtani becoming the 12th to win three MVPs – only Barry Bonds has won more with seven – and Judge becoming the 34th player to ever win two.

However, if there was an MLB MVP, we'd mix the Judge vs. Ohtani debate with some Witt mixed in again. Let's take a look. All stats through Thursday, meaning there would be three games left to get things under control.

Judge's case

Few in history have ever been able to lead an offense as successfully as Judge. Of course, he's gotten help this season in the form of Juan Soto, but Judge can still form a one-man scrap crew when he's around. Aside from Judge and Soto, the Yankees' lineup has been largely inconsistent and lackluster. And yet they won the AL East and could end up with the best record in the AL.

Judge is hitting .325/.461/.708 (226 OPS+) with 36 doubles, one triple, 58 home runs, 144 RBI, 122 runs, 10 stolen bases and 10.8 WAR. He spent most of his time in defense in midfield, which is not a position for him.

He leads the majors in home runs, RBI, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and WAR.

Judge has the edge here in many ways. If someone believes that the most valuable player is the best player, that should be the judge. When all-round play is rewarded, we're talking about arguably the best batsman who also puts in a lot of time at a premier defensive position. If “value” means being an important part of a playoff team, Judge has that and more. That somewhat nebulous “fear” factor? Come on. Judge is an incredibly frightening presence when he puts his mind to it. He just checks so many boxes.

Ohtani's case

The Dodgers won the NL West and could finish with the best record in baseball. This is despite an injury-plagued pitching staff, not to mention that Mookie Betts also missed 46 games. Of course, there was some help since Ohtani can't do it alone – but he's been the heartbeat of the team all season.

Ohtani is rehabilitating his pitching elbow after offseason surgery and was demoted to designated hitter as a result. From the DH, however, he hit .305/.387/.643 (188 OPS+) with 37 doubles, seven triples, 53 homers, 126 RBI, 131 runs, 56 stolen bases and 8.8 WAR.

It would be difficult to represent Ohtani against Judge based on any of the above criteria. Judge is having a better offensive season in many ways, even if it's close. The team argument should be a non-starter. Both batsmen are absurdly “scary,” if you’re into that sort of thing. Judge plays center field and Ohtani is just a DH.

BUT.

What about the story?

Ohtani is the first player ever to have a 50-50 season, and that too feels particularly. Remember, Miguel Cabrera beat Mike Trout for AL MVP in 2012 with relative ease. The team argument may have played a role – the Tigers made the playoffs and the Angels didn't – but I think Cabrera winning his first Triple Crown since 1967 swung things heavily in his direction.

Before Ohtani, we had only seen five players this season even achieve a 40-40 record. And not only did he hit exactly 50 home runs and 50 steals, he even exceeded 50 points in both categories.

Of course, for this argument to fully work, Judge must stay below 60 home runs – because when Judge gets there, it will be historic that he has two 60 home run seasons within three years of the drug testing era.

If Judge stayed under 60 home runs, I think there would be some movement toward Ohtani because of the 50-50 milestone.

Witt's case

Witt is well below Judge and the whole 50/50 thing means, in my opinion, that Ohtani would most likely be ranked above him as well. In this fictional world, it's hard to say. I just didn't want to leave Witt out of this exercise because he's having a season that deserves to be included in the discussion.

Witt is hitting .332/.389/.591 (171 OPS+) with 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers, 109 RBI, 124 runs, 31 stolen bases and 9.3 WAR. He leads the majors with 209 hits and would win the MLB batting title in this world where we have eliminated awards and honors based on leagues.

It is truly one of the greatest seasons in Royals history. George Brett's 9.4 WAR in 1980 long held the franchise record, but Witt is right there now. WAR in and of itself doesn't decide which season is better, it's just a simple number to illustrate how Witt and Brett are on par in this one season.

To be clear, I personally think you could make a strong case for choosing Witt over Ohtani here based on the entire comparison between DH and a great defensive shortstop. The argument would be that Ohtani's offensive advantages over Witt aren't enough to close the gap in defensive contributions.

All I'm saying is that I have a feeling the electoral college would agree with Ohtani.

The decision

I think Judge would do it with Ohtani in second place, but it wouldn't be unanimous. There would be a lot of Ohtani votes for first place. I think Witt might be able to grab a few runners-up, but not many. He would be a solid third.