The Six Pack: Alabama vs. Georgia, Notre Dame vs. Louisville among the top college football picks of Week 5

Last week was mediocre for The Six Pack, which was a little more painful because we were so close to a great week. Of the six picks, only LSU, which scored 24 points against UCLA, was an absolute weak point.

Our Cal +2.5 game lost thanks to a late missed field goal, and we were a Will Johnson pick-six away from under-cashing USC against Michigan with ease. Damn, Will Johnson! Why do you have to be so great?

The column ended 3-3, but I feel like I have a better handle on where things stand than I did in the first two weeks of the season. I am confident that this will be reflected in this week's results.

Famous last words, right?

SportsLine consensus odds

Games of the week

No. 2 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama: I'm a little worried about Georgia! That's a sentence I haven't uttered often in recent years. Even considering how good Georgia is, it's a little worrying. The Bulldogs didn't play well against Kentucky, but came away with a 13-12 victory. It's not entirely out of character for this team to play with their food, but it usually gets things going at the end of these games. That didn't happen against Kentucky. To top it off, they'll probably be without guard Tate Ratledge (ankle) for a month or more, and they're also hurt in other areas.

Meanwhile, Alabama was looking great. Wisconsin hasn't been much of a threat, and I doubt even a healthy Tyler Van Dyke can change that. The Crimson Tide's offense is explosive and their defense is troublesome, the latter of which gives me cause for concern for Georgia. The interior of Georgia's offensive line was phenomenal, but now they've lost Ratledge. Georgia's tackling wasn't up to typical Georgia standards, and I'm concerned that the loss of Ratledge has an impact on more than just the team.

Working in a demanding environment And I'm afraid that a small deficit on the offensive line is not conducive to an outstanding result. Still, this game feels like a coin toss. The Pick: Alabama +2.5 (-115)

No. 15 Louisville and No. 16 Notre Dame: I still have questions about how well Louisville's offense is based on its three opponents, but what I don't question is the defense. It is good and will continue to be so. Notre Dame has been extremely one-dimensional on offense: the Irish rank 11th nationally in EPA per rush and 95th in passing. The Cardinals have been steadfast against the run, and if they can slow down that part of the Notre Dame offense, how much of a counterattack will the Irish have?

But Louisville itself hasn't seen nearly as good a defense as it has at this point, and it's on the road. I'm not particularly confident that this unit will have the same success in South Bend. In my opinion, we have all the makings of a low-scoring affair. The Choice: Under 45.5 (-109)

Castle of the week

No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State: We don't know who Ohio State is yet. We know they are one of the most talented teams in the country hoping to win the Big Ten and possibly a national title. However, three paycheck games in which the Buckeyes significantly outclassed the competition didn't show us anything interesting. They just lined up and beat the teams hands down.

Maybe this Saturday we'll see what Chip Kelly has in store for this offense. Going on the road is tough, but even if we don't know exactly what the Buckeyes will look like, I have a strong feeling they will blow the doors off the Spartans. Michigan State is 3-1 but turns the ball over way too often. Aidan Chiles has four touchdowns to seven interceptions, and this Ohio State defense should confuse him and force him into more turnovers. Once the avalanche begins, I doubt the Spartans can stop it. The Pick: Ohio State -23.5 (-105)

Over the week

Colorado at UCF: This is a perfect match between teams who don't seem to be able to stop what the other is doing. UCF boasts one of the most effective and explosive rushing offenses in the country and faces a Colorado defense that ranks 83rd in explosive run rate allowed. Meanwhile, Colorado has QB Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and a number of excellent receivers who are not easy to cover. The UCF defense ranks 92nd in EPA allowed per dropback against New Hampshire, San Houston State and TCU. What will Colorado do if the Knights can't stop them?

I wouldn't expect many punts in this game. It should go back and forth, which is why (full disclosure) I also took Colorado +16.5 earlier in the week. The spread has shrunk now and I don't like it nearly as much as the over. There's a good chance this will be the most entertaining game of the weekend. The Choice: Over 64.5 (-110)

During the week

Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan: The fight for the little brown mug probably won't be pretty. We saw last week how one-dimensional Michigan's offense was, even in winning. It's not often that teams throw for just 32 yards and win games, but the Wolverines did it. Something tells me they won't have developed an explosive passing game through the week, although the possible return of TE Colston Loveland would help.

Michigan will try to control the clock and the play on the ground, which shortens the game and makes it more difficult to score. The Gophers don't have much success in the air either, but they have the added advantage of not being effective on the ground either. There was a significant lack of big plays in the Gophers' offense, and trying to score against Michigan with drives of 10 plays or more is a chore. The Choice: Under 36.5 (-111)

MAC Dad of the Week

San Diego State in central Michigan: I don't think the spread recognizes how good Central Michigan is. Yes, the Chippewas lost on the road to FIU 52-16, but they turned the ball over six times in the game. It was an absolute freak performance that you probably won't see again. Their other loss came against an Illinois team that is now 4-0 with wins over Kansas and Nebraska.

Offensively, the Chips have the ability to rack up points quickly. They rank 24th nationally in explosive play rate and gain big yards both through the air and on the ground. Meanwhile, San Diego State doesn't yet look like a Sean Lewis team on offense and is struggling to move the ball. Defensively, the Aztecs were solid if unspectacular, so I don't think the Chippewas are running away with that, but I think the margin should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. The Pick: Central Michigan -2.5 (-110)

SportsLine's proven computer model calls for 10 surprises in Week 5 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks from the model that simulates every game 10,000 times.