Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State, BYU vs. Baylor Picks: CFB Predictions, Odds

Baylor shouldn't have lost to Colorado last week. The Bears were up 31-24 with less than four minutes left and missed a game-winning 45-yard field goal.

Shedeur Sanders then completed a 43-yard Hail Mary touchdown to tie the game as time expired.

After Colorado scored first in overtime, Dominic Richardson fumbled at the goal line in Baylor's response.

Conversely, BYU should not have won against Kansas State last week.

The Cougars had a total of 416 yards to 241, but won thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns and two short-field touchdown drives following interceptions.

Because of these random results, the Bears are underplayed at home against BYU on Saturday.

Baylor's offense has improved after switching from DeQuann Finn to Sawyer Robertson, who has completed 64 percent of his passes for 9.3 YPA, three touchdowns and no picks over the past two weeks.

Robertson helped open the game on the ground as the Bears rushed for 396 yards in his two starts.

BYU's passing offense has shined behind Jake Retzlaff, but the Cougars can't run the ball and will be without top defender LJ Martin on Saturday.

Baylor's veteran defense improved as Dave Aranda started calling plays.

The Bears rank 25th in EPA per plays allowed and fifth in success rate allowed, including fourth in pass success rate allowed.

That doesn't bode well for Retzlaff's one-dimensional attack.

The pick: Baylor -3.

Oklahoma State (+5) over KANSAS STATE

I don't have much to like about Oklahoma State this season, mostly because the Cowboys can't establish a run attack despite fielding Ollie Gordon II and an experienced line.

When the Cowboys can't run, they'll have to rely on the mercurial Alan Bowman, who struggles with turnovers and working through progressions.

But Bowman hasn't been bad this year, as the Pokes ranked in the top 40 in pass success rate and EPA per dropback.

And his deficiencies may not matter against a lifeless Kansas State secondary that ranks 74th in pass completion percentage allowed and has been shredded by chunk plays.

Conversely, Oklahoma State's 3-3-5 defense is susceptible to chunk pass plays and ranks 130th in explosiveness allowed.

But Kansas State's high-octane offense isn't designed to cause mischief.

The Wildcats' special teams are also a concern, ranking 125th in average net field position (-7.3).

PENN STATE (-18) over Illinois

Illinois is overrated after its 4-0 start.

The Illini were fortunate to win games against Kansas and Nebraska and needed a plus-four turnover margin to earn both victories.

If the Illini were 2-2, they would probably score well over 20 points on the road at Penn State.

Penn State's new offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki, is a wizard.

Betting on college football?

He helped develop Drew Allar into an elite quarterback and paired him with a dominant two-headed tailback monster in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

The Lions should play their best against a completely average defense because that's what James Franklin does.

Penn State is a double-digit favorite at 35-21-2 under its longtime head coach.

Last week: 3-0. Texas Tech (F), Rutgers (F), Utah (F)
2024 season: 6-6.

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by going 40/1 on Sandy Alcantara and winning the NL Cy Young.