Fresno State Bulldogs vs UNLV Rebels Prediction – Pickswise

Week 5 features some big games featuring Group 5 teams, and one of the key contests is a Mountain West matchup between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas. Both teams are undoubtedly contenders to challenge Boise State for the Mountain West title, and this game should be a fantastic back-and-forth affair. However, the Rebels are a bit overrated in this game based on their results so far this season.

UNLV has already defeated two Big 12 teams in Houston and Kansas, giving the Rebels two of the more impressive non-conference wins for a five-seed team this season. While the win over the Cougars was certainly legitimate, upon closer inspection, UNLV probably should have lost to Kansas. After all, Kansas outscored the Rebels by nearly 100 yards and the Jayhawks also lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a game in which they averaged 6 yards per play. On the other hand, Fresno State put up a real fight against Michigan in the Big House in Week 1 and the Bulldogs absolutely deserved to cover the number in this game. Since then, the Bulldogs have won three straight games in convincing fashion and enter this game with a record of 3-1 against the spread. Mikey Keene has been efficient lately, throwing three touchdowns in the last few games and not turning the ball over. If he can avoid the turnovers on Saturday, the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball through the air in this game.

Despite head coach Jeff Tedford retiring over the summer, the Fresno State program is as strong as ever. This is still a fundamentally solid football team with one of the best defenses in the Group of 5 (12th in net points per drive, 12th in 3rd down success rate), and they should force UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka to making similar mistakes like he made against Kansas. In this game, Sluka made a number of turnover-worthy throws and even a few seemingly costly fumbles that were recovered by his teammates on offense. However, unlike their previous opponents, this Bulldogs team will make UNLV pay for those mistakes. This game should come down to the last few possessions, so I'm happy to take the underdog against a team that gets a lot of credit in the market for just one result. Let's take Fresno State +4.5 as my prediction for this game.

Fresno State vs UNLV Prediction: Fresno State +4.5 available at time of publication. Playable up to 3.5

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