The Diamondbacks' remaining playoff win scenarios

After a 5-3 loss to the San Diego Padres on Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks now need a little help to secure a spot in the 2024 MLB Playoffs.

With the Braves' win against the Royals on Friday, Arizona (88-72) is virtually tied with the New York Mets (87-71) and Atlanta (87-71) with no tiebreaker over either team.

The Mets and Braves play a doubleheader on Monday due to postponements caused by Hurricane Helene, leaving four games each remaining, and Arizona has two.

Fangraphs odds have Arizona (37.7) moving into the playoffs on Saturday behind Atlanta (91) and New York (71.3).

The Padres (92-68) clinched the top Wild Card spot with a win on Friday and secured home-field advantage in the Wild Card round. The only thing the Padres care about anymore is the role of spoilsport if San Diego wants to potentially prevent its NL West opponent from making the playoffs.

Will the Diamondbacks make the playoffs? D-Backs win scenarios

2 wins by Arizona

With two wins, the Diamondbacks would reach 90 wins, while with three more losses, the Mets and Braves would eliminate the chance of both reaching 90 wins.

The Diamondbacks would clinch a playoff spot with two wins and a loss against the Mets or Braves before the doubleheader.

1 Arizona win

With just one win, Arizona would have to wait until Monday's doubleheader between the Braves and Mets unless the two teams both lose their next two games or post a 1-3 record for the remainder of this weekend.

The D-backs would have to finish 1-3 or worse overall against the Mets or Braves.

No wins from Arizona

Arizona would have to lose to the Mets or Braves to clinch a playoff spot. The D-Backs wouldn't be able to get the win before Monday if they are defeated by San Diego.

Unfavorable matchups help the D-backs

Despite losing to the Braves on Friday, the Royals secured a playoff spot with a loss to the Minnesota Twins.

The only thing Kansas City has left to gain is wild-card positioning, as it sits one game behind the Detroit Tigers for the second wild-card spot on Saturday. The Royals cannot advance any further as the Baltimore Orioles have already secured the first wild card spot in the American League.

Seth Lugo (3.03 ERA) will start for Kansas City against Atlanta's Reynaldo Lopez (2.03 ERA) in Saturday's matchup.

The Mets suffered an 8-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are the NL Central champions, having secured their third division win behind the Dodgers and Phillies. It was a costly win for the Brewers, as right fielder Sal Frelick left the game in the fourth inning after crashing into the sidewall while trying to catch a foul ball on a bounce.

Given the injury, it will be interesting to see if Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy plays it safe and rests the starters for the rest of the series.

Lefty reliever Jared Koenig (2.51 ERA) will start for the Brewers on Saturday against Mets pitcher Jose Quintana (3.74 ERA).

Doubleheader hits Diamondbacks

It's a slim chance for the Diamondbacks to miss a win before Monday's doubleheader.

This scenario could see either the Mets or Braves claim victory in the first game of their doubleheader and hit the brakes to retain their top starters, relievers and position players for a second game in which the other club scores a win needed to get in. If the D-Backs win 90 games, but both the Mets and Braves are at 89 on Monday, that's a problem.

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