The remnants of Helene on September 30 bring back a chilly rain and could impact the Orioles' home playoff game

Monday, September 30, 2024

Morning report

The work week will start off wet with bands of rain coming from central Maryland and west, while drizzle and fog will occur around the Bay and east.

The remaining energy from Helene will flow through today and tomorrow, extending the rain eastward. It will rain again tomorrow, which could impact the Baltimore Orioles' first home game.

The pattern will be broken and the sun and warmer temperatures will be back by the end of the week.

Looking further into the future, there is a possibility of another tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend, but this one is NOT the same one.

Live radar widget

Monday morning will start with mist and mist, with occasional showers. They may not all show up on the radar, but we can see some of the rain.

Morning surface weather

Helene's remains still circle the Ohio Valley. Further inland, rainbands are steady and extend into central Maryland. The larger circulation is still pulling tropical moisture north along the East Coast.

It will take another two days until we can finally cross and leave the east coast.

Morning satellite loop

The large-scale circulation shows the rotation of the Remnant Low of Helene (merging with the Upper-Level Low) and the influence of clouds in the eastern US.

Radar simulation 8:00 a.m. to midnight

Snapshot at 4 p.m

Afternoon temperatures

ADVANCED AND TROPICAL FORECASTS BELOW

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 30th

Sunrise at 7:02 a.m

Sunset at 6:50 p.m

Normal low in Baltimore: 53°F

Record temperature of 39°F in 1888

Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 74°F

Record 92ºF in 1986

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 1

Temperatures:

The slight variation from morning to afternoon is due to the additional humidity.

Morning low

Morning radar snapshot

The morning is expected to start wet.

Rain simulation: 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m

The rain will extend further east and will be heavy at times.

Afternoon high

LOOKING AHEAD: Jet Stream

Tuesday afternoon to Friday afternoon

After this storm moves away from the coast, it will release a warmer current from the jet stream.

Friday

This might be the best day of the week. The upper airflow brings sunshine and temperatures into the 80s.

Tropical view from the National Hurricane Center

As of this morning, the probability of “something” developing in the next 7 days is still 50%! This is the same region that Helene comes from, but it is NOT the same!!

NOTE: It is IMPOSSIBLE to draw a tropical event BEFORE a central low pressure area is identified and plotted on a map. Therefore, any predictions you may have seen are wrong.

NEXT MONDAY: 8 DAYS TO GO

ECMWF model

This shows something off the west coast of Florida moving EASTWARD and crossing Florida.

Animation: October 7th to 9th

GFS model

This shows something in the central Gulf of Mexico, less organized, further away and ahead of the primary trough…. This is also moving EASTWARD and crossing Florida.

Animation: October 7th to 9th

7 day forecast

Helene's remains will continue to rain on us for a few days.

The steady and even heavy rain will continue to spread and shift eastward on Tuesday. Then it will break up and with the return of the sun temperatures will warm up to end the work week.

Please note that this may impact the Orioles' playoff schedule at Camden Yards.

Please share your thoughts and pictures/videos of the best weather or just stay in touch via social media.

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SEE ALSO

Equinox does NOT equal daylight… Not yet

SECOND OF FOUR COMPLETE SUPERMOONS

Click here to view the full report:

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn't let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It's part of my charm. #FITF