How 'The CP3 Effect' can help Spurs turn things around

Spurs will make their 2024-2025 season debut in less than four weeks. This as-yet-unplayed roster will feature several new faces, the most notable of which is point guard Chris Paul. Paul is a future Hall of Famer with an impressive resume – 11 All-NBA teams, 12 All-Star appearances and 9 All-Defense teams, as well as a handful of assist-and-steal titles – but what he will bring to San Antonio can be elegantly summarized in one important statistic: wins.

In a phenomenon called the “Chris Paul effect” or “CP3 effect,” teams that add Paul achieve regular-season wins, particularly in his first season with the franchise: a trend that continues to be rookie year can be traced back. Of the six franchises Paul has previously played for, all had better seasons the year they added him. On average, teams improve by 8.67 wins in Paul's first year on the roster. All in all, any team he joins will benefit from his presence. Once could be a coincidence, twice could be a coincidence, beyond that it's a pattern.

The 2005 New Orleans Hornets won 18 games. In 2006, after selecting Paul fourth overall, they won 38, with Paul taking home Rookie of the Year honors. The Los Angeles Clippers won 32 games in 2011, they traded for Paul and won 40 the next season. The trend continued in Houston: the 2017 Rockets won 55 games, the 2018 Rockets won 65, setting a franchise record. Phoenix had the same result. The team improved by 17 from 2020 to 2021 and set another franchise win record the following year with 64 wins. Even the mighty Warriors picked up two more wins last season after trading for Paul.

Franchise profit records are actually another trend in themselves. In addition to the records in Houston and Phoenix, Paul was part of the Hornets (2008, 56 wins) and Clippers (2014, 57 wins) franchise-best seasons, making him the only player to participate in four franchise-record seasons.

Despite these records, the season Paul is most proud of is the one in which there was no increase in wins in Oklahoma City. Although the team with Paul technically won five fewer games than the previous year, the overall winning percentage was still better (.611 compared to .598) due to a season shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Remarkably, he single-handedly led a rebuilding team into the playoffs against all odds, leading the Houston Rockets to seven games.

“I’ll never forget the year I played in Oklahoma City,” Paul said The Athletics Anthony Slater in an interview in 2022. “That was the first year I lived away from my family. The relationships I have built with my teammates and fans. The fans were great. I always hate that this season was canceled due to COVID-19. It was a big season, a big summer for me, going through things I haven't experienced since my time in the league.”

Why this year should be remembered even more by Spurs fans is the fact that in addition to the youth he is now surrounded by, there were a lot of youngsters in that team. Oklahoma City had a young star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who just finished second in MVP voting. The Spurs have reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama, who is already the face of the league. Now officially at the end of his career, Paul will rack up victories, but his experienced mentor could be even more valuable than what he brings to the boxing standings. The fact that the season Paul most enjoys watching is one in which he had more teaching opportunities bodes well for the young squad he will soon be playing with.

Coach Gregg Popovich knew what he was doing when he hired Paul along with another NBA veteran, Harrison Barnes. “Have [Paul] and Harrison at this stage of [their] “It’s really wonderful for the youth we have to have a career,” Popovich said recently. “When a player you respect says the same things as us, sometimes that is much more valuable. It will be great to have her with you.”

While it is unlikely that the Spurs will set a franchise winning record, it is almost unstoppable that they will surpass the 22 win mark, confirming the CP3 effect. Additionally, he brings his mentorship and veteran presence to a young team with a rising star. Paul can instill discipline on and off the pitch and show this group of young talent how to be a professional. He will be a true example of what it takes every day to be a top talent in the NBA, something Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan and Stephon Castle have never seen before.

The trend is clear: Chris Paul makes teams better. Better yet, the habits and conscientiousness he instills will prove reinforcing in both the short and long term. Therefore, the “Chris Paul effect” will be twofold. Win basketball games and teach others how to win basketball games.