The ports of New York and New Jersey are preparing for a longshoremen's strike on Tuesday

An overnight strike by unionized longshoremen on the East Coast is very likely, senior state officials and employees at the ports of New York and New Jersey said Monday, and would dramatically upend the supply chain for billions of dollars' worth of consumer goods the busy Christmas shopping season.

“We expect there will be a strike before midnight tonight,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said during a news conference Monday morning.

The 85,000-member International Longshoremen's Association is in a standoff with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents shipping and port terminal companies, and the ILA's contract expires Monday evening.

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Rick Cotton, executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey – which leases space at the ports to shipping and terminal companies – said that “we expect the ILA and its … members to strike at the ports.” from Maine to Texas when Tuesday begins.

North Bergen-based ILA executives broke off contract negotiations in June after learning that a form of automation had been implemented at the Port of Mobile in Alabama, a move they said violated the existing contract.

Last week, USMX filed an unfair labor practice complaint with the National Labor Relations Board because of ILA's insistence on not resuming contract negotiations.

Neither the ILA nor USMX could be reached for comment Monday.

Longshore workers union leaders are calling for significant wage increases for their members, saying they deserve a fair share of the profits made by shipping and port terminal companies as cargo volumes continue to be higher following demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

They also oppose efforts to automate ports, which would lead to job losses for longshoremen.

Jackie Bray, commissioner of the New York State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services, said it will be a matter of “weeks, not days” of the strike before the average consumer will feel any impact.

The impact on consumers is further mitigated by the fact that many consumer products are already “in warehouses”. They’ve been there a long time,” Bray said.

“There may be a product here or there, but it takes weeks for regular consumers to feel it,” she said.

Hochul assured that “people don’t need to rush to grocery stores and hoard items like they did during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

A strike lasting just a few days could lead to weeks of delays

But there are fears that a strike lasting just a few days could upend the supply chain and hurt the holiday shopping season, during which American consumers spent more than $964 billion last year, according to the trade group National Retail Federation .

A strike of just a few days could mean weeks of delays in the supply chain, and a strike of a week or longer would mean delays of over a month, said Peter Tirschwell, vice president of maritime and trading at S&P Global.

Still, many importers – retailers and other businesses – “have been aware of the possibility of a strike for months and have therefore postponed their import schedule, so much Christmas goods are already in the country and safe from a strike,” Tirschwell said.

The ILA has not struck since 1977, and the possibility of doing so comes just weeks before a presidential and congressional election.

The Biden administration has declined to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to block the strike. Instead, White House officials encouraged ongoing discussions, even though retail, agriculture, trade, auto care, toys and other groups had been asking for help for months.

“It's an election year, so Biden could step in to help [Democratic presidential nominee Kamala] Harris,” Chris Tang, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles who studies supply chains, told USA Today.

“He may not say it on the outside, but behind the scenes he could be supporting the negotiations because it is important to Harris,” Tang said. “Any chaos could impact the election.”

Impact on the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

The bi-state Port Authority has been working in recent weeks to bring as many ships ashore as possible before a possible work stoppage and to plan an orderly closure of the ports, said Beth Rooney, the authority's port director.

If a strike occurs, all activities related to the loading and unloading of freight containers and cars would come to a standstill, Rooney said. Cruise ships will continue to sail.

Ports are unloading about 20 large container ships a week, and Rooney said they expect to unload 150,000 containers before a possible strike occurs.

Cotton, the agency's executive director, said the port needs to store around 100,000 shipping containers that would remain in limbo in the event of a strike.

An estimated 35 ships are expected to enter and anchor in the port next week, Cotton said.

Container ships carrying imports to Newark, Elizabeth and Staten Island would moor at specific locations in New York Harbor or offshore during the strike or simply slow down, drift and loiter to ride out the strike in the Atlantic, Rooney said.

Cotton said there would be a “phased” closure of port operations until midnight, with sea terminal gates closing at 5pm on Monday in the event of a strike.

Once a strike ended, the U.S. Coast Guard, along with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, coordinated the orderly arrival of waiting vessels at port facilities.

What would be allowed through the ports?

All container and car shipping would stop moving in the event of a strike.

Fuels such as heating oil are not affected because they are brought in from other ships, Hochul said.

Municipal waste disposal is not affected, said Hochul, “that means your garbage will continue to be transported and disposed of.”

The import and export of road salt, cement, Belgian blocks, scrap metal, cooking oils and orange juice will continue, officials said.

This article contains material from USA Today.

Daniel Munoz covers business, consumer affairs, labor and economics for NorthJersey.com and The Record.

The ports of New York and New Jersey are preparing for a longshoremen's strike on Tuesday

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