Ranking rookies in the MLB postseason by their potential impact

The Athletic reports on it live MLB Wild Card Series.

The 12 teams in the playoffs include a number of rookies who should play prominent roles in the postseason, from several Rookie of the Year contenders to a few recently drafted players who could fill important roles in a short series. Here's my quick ranking of the top rookies in the postseason based on how much of an impact I think they could have given their likely playing time and effort:

1. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Chourio, who just turned 20 in March, began the year as the Brewers' center fielder and made some adjustments in late May and early June to develop into one of the best rookie hitters in baseball. Starting on June 1, when he had his worst triple-slash line of the season, he hit .303/.358/.525, learned off-speed stuff better, and chased less out of the zone so pitchers didn't low-fly him could take advantage and away or only in the outer third. He is also an excellent defender in both corners of the outfield and could also play in the middle if needed.

2. Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres

I've already mentioned that I think Merrill should be the NL rookie of the year, but I think he has some weaknesses that might be more exposed in a short series against an opponent's best pitchers. When he does make contact, it's pretty much consistently hard contact, resulting in a lot of red on his Baseball Savant page, including some expected stats (what kind of performance one should expect given his quality and frequency of contact). ) in the top 5 percent overall in baseball.

One thing to watch for is how willing he is to force things out of the zone; He hit these balls well during the regular season, but I expect the typical balls he sees outside the strike zone in October will be better than the typical ones he saw in the regular season. Another concern is that Merrill has struggled mightily against lefties this year, and while he's young enough to expect him to improve over time, the Padres might want to at least move him way down the lineup , when playing against a left-handed player.

3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Yamamoto returned from a three-month IL stint and made four shortened starts in September, pitching 16 innings, striking out 21, walking five, allowing one home run and seven total runs. He reached an average speed of 95.5 miles per hour in his four-seater, which was exactly where he had been before the injury. So I doubt he works very deep into the start, but he should remain effective in 4-5 inning stints. His splitter is a true out pitch that helped him earn a reverse platoon split this year, even though neither right-handed nor left-handed batters even managed a .300 OBP against him.

4. Luis Gil, RHP, New York Yankees

With Nestor Cortes on the roster, Gil's role becomes even more important for the Yankees, and unfortunately Gil limped over the finish line this year after a strong first half. After the All-Star break, he struck out 28 in 49 1/3 innings and posted a 4.20 ERA/5.21 FIP, despite having overtime between starts several times during that span. However, thanks to the Yankees' first-round bye, he should have more than a full week's rest, which may help him regain what little pace he lost in September. However, he relies more on his offspeed stuff than his four-seater, so I'm less worried about that last part than perhaps other pitchers.

5. Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles

The O's will have several rookies on their playoff roster, but only Cowser appears to be guaranteed a starting role. After a dismal first half, Cowser switched to a longer, heavier bat immediately after the All-Star break and had at least a little more power with 12 of his 24 home runs and a .268/.337/.477 line in the second half ( but also with a strikeout rate of 31.9 percent). Cowser hits fastballs from right-handed hitters and generally hits the ball hard when he makes contact, but he whiffs over 40 percent of the time he attacks anything that isn't a fastball, and he has had trouble hitting since his time Left-handers in the high minor tones.

6. Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees

Wells has shown that he can hit right-handed pitchers well with all 13 of his home runs against right-handers and a .236/.327/.434 line, and has improved over the course of the season, although he continues to be a hit against lefties and the Yankees should start Jose Trevino whenever their opponents start a southpaw.

7. Spencer Hügelbach, RHP, Atlanta

Schlafenbach developed into one of Atlanta's best starters in his rookie season, finishing near the top in WAR thanks to a very strong four-pitch mix highlighted by a plus splitter and arguably a plus slider with a big vertical break Top 5 NL rookie pitchers. However, there's a caveat here – thresholdsbach pitched in the first game of Atlanta's doubleheader against the Mets on Monday, so he likely won't appear until the Division Series if they get that far.

8. Joey Ortiz, 3B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers

Ortiz, a natural shortstop, played elite defense at third base for the Brewers this year while producing league-average offense, enough that he nearly matched the man he was traded for in fWAR, Corbin Burnes (3, 1 vs. 3.7). Ortiz is a high-contact hitter who has sneaky pop and could easily switch to short if needed.

Cade Smith was a big part of an impressive Cleveland bullpen. (Ken Blaze/USA Today)

9. Cade Smith, RHP, Cleveland Guardians

According to Statcast, Smith's four-seamer was the most valuable pitch in baseball in 2024, scoring 28 runs above average, and he uses it a ton. He doesn't have elite movement, but he does have a massive 7.4 feet of extension, giving hitters less time to react to it, and he sets it off with a decent splitter. Manager Stephen Vogt was very uncreative in his use of substitutes, but Smith and Emmanuel Clase were so effective that it didn't matter. Notably, Smith hasn't hit more than five batters in an appearance over the last two months and was a one-inning hitter for much of the second half.

10. Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers

I'm including Meadows over fellow Tigers rookie Colt Keith because I think Meadows is more likely to have a significant impact on a single game or series thanks to his defense; Over the course of his career, he has now +10 runs saved in 976 center field innings, or about 15 runs per 162 games. After being demoted to Triple-A earlier in the season, he showed some improvement at the plate, and while he's a weak hitter overall, he has some swing and doesn't chase out of the zone too much.

11. Tobias Myers, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Myers' year may have been the most unsettled of all on the list, and I'm not sure I'd want him in the rotation for a short series, but the Brewers' other options all have their weaknesses, too. Myers doesn't throw hard and doesn't have a plus pitch, which he does with excellent control and a lot of luck – he allowed just a .282 BABIP this year (helped by the Brewers' strong defense) and had an 81 success rate. 1 percent Neither is sustainable in the long term.

12. Orion Kerkering, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Kerkering has a great sinker/slider combination and can finish off righties with either pitch, but allowed a .347 OBP to lefties and doesn't have another hit to attack them with. He's still effective and useful in the right places, but depending on who plays for the other side, he should be behind several other substitutes on the roster.

13. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Detroit Tigers

As of this writing, we don't know who's on the postseason roster, so it's possible that Jobe won't be a first-round pick for the Tigers… but Jobe would be an excellent weapon for Detroit, whose Bullpen threw 694 innings this year, 60 more than any other AL team. With a plus fastball/changeup combination, he should be good against left- and right-handed hitters and could even go multiple innings since he spent most of the year as a starter (in fact, he should probably do that instead of working). brief relief on consecutive days).

14. Andy Pages, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kevin Kiermaier dislocated the ring finger of his left hand over the weekend and is currently “day to day”; If he can't walk, Pages is a potential receiver for playing time, especially if the Dodgers go against a left-handed pitcher. He can play all three outfield spots if needed, although he is best suited at corner. He's made hard contact in the majors this year, hitting lefties with a .357/.396/.520 line in 107 PA, making him a useful platoon player at least in a short series, but his poor swing decisions so far in this year doesn't bode well for how he'll fare against better pitchers in October.

(Top photo illustration by Jackson Chourio (left): John Fisher/Getty Images and Jackson Merrill: Denis Poroy / Getty Images)