Tropical forecast for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, 7 day forecast

There is a moderate chance of tropical development in an isolated area in the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days. However, a tropical depression that formed on Tuesday could play a larger role in a system that forms in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days. Let's dive into the forecast data. US FORECAST – GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS): The forecast data here still varies with different solutions from run to run. Last weekend, forecasts indicated that a weaker tropical depression-type system would move north across the Caribbean and a system would be stationed in the Gulf of Mexico. On Tuesday, forecast data for the day changed and again suggested a stronger storm would develop over the weekend. This was most likely influenced by the tropical depression that formed off the extreme southern coast of Mexico. This shows a much stronger storm but very small in size. By next Tuesday, according to this forecast, a stronger hurricane is developing that could be in the magnitude of a Category 2 storm. However, the storm would remain well southeast of Louisiana. EUROPEAN FORECAST – EUROPEAN CENTER FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING (ECMWF): The Euro- Forecast has predicted a more widespread area of ​​low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, helping to bring rain chances for us through Thursday and Friday. Today's forecast data still confirms this solution. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS: The area delineated by the National Hurricane Center appears to be conducive to development. Water temperatures are in the high 80s, humidity is high, and wind shear is quite low in places, but there is even more significant wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico. THE FINDINGS: We are starting to see a clearer picture of a cloud of tropical humidity that will give us rain chances through Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, indications are that at least one tropical depression is becoming more likely to form, but it will remain in the Gulf of Mexico far enough south of Louisiana that impacts will be felt primarily over Florida. We'll need to continue to closely monitor every forecast that comes out between now and then, and you'll find those updates right here. Be safe and take care of yourself.

There is a moderate chance of tropical development in an isolated area in the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days.

However, a tropical depression that formed Tuesday could play a larger role in a system that forms in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days.

Let's take a look at the forecast data.

US FORECAST – GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS):

The forecast data still fluctuates here, with different solutions from run to run. Last weekend, forecasts called for a weaker tropical depression-type system to move north across the Caribbean and a system in the Gulf of Mexico.

On Tuesday, forecast data for the day changed, suggesting a stronger storm would develop over the weekend. This was most likely influenced by the tropical depression that formed off the extreme southern coast of Mexico.

This shows a much stronger storm, but very small.

According to this forecast, a stronger hurricane, which could be in the magnitude of a Category 2 storm, will develop by next Tuesday. However, the storm would remain well southeast of Louisiana.

EUROPEAN FORECAST – EUROPEAN CENTER FOR MEDIUM WEATHER FORECAST (ECMWF):

The Euro forecast predicts a broader area of ​​low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to rainfall through Thursday and Friday.

Today's forecast data still confirms this solution.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS:

The area delineated by the National Hurricane Center appears to be conducive to development. Water temperatures are in the high 80s, humidity is high, and wind shear is relatively low in some locations, but wind shear is significantly stronger over the western Gulf of Mexico.

THE NOTIFICATIONS:

We are starting to see a clearer picture of a cloud of tropical humidity that will bring us a chance of rain through Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, indications are that at least one tropical depression is becoming more likely to form, but it will remain in the Gulf of Mexico far enough south of Louisiana that its effects will be felt primarily over Florida.

Until then, we must continue to monitor all forecasts closely, and you can find those updates here.

Be safe and take care of yourself.