Baseball America's 2024 Rookie of the Year

Photo credit:
Paul Skenes (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

From first pick to first starter in less than a year.

That sums up the rise of Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes, who won a national championship with LSU in 2023, went first in the draft that year and then made his MLB debut on May 11 of this year.

Even though the Pirates weren't contending for the championship in 2024, it wasn't because they lacked on the front line. Skenes pitched as advertised as a rookie, going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts and 32 walks in 133 innings. He allowed just 10 home runs in 23 starts.

Even in a crowded National League rookie field, Skenes stood out. He delivered one of the strongest seasons as a rookie pitcher in the Wild Card era, rivaling Spencer Strider, Kerry Wood, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Jose Fernandez and imported Japanese aces Hideo Nomo and Yu Darvish for dominance.

The various statistics listed below illustrate why Skenes is Baseball America's 2024 Rookie of the Year:

1.96 ERA

Some baseball numbers don't require context. One such number is an ERA that is close to 2.00 over a larger sample.

Skenes fell about 30 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title, but his 1.96 ERA was the lowest of any pitcher with at least 120 innings pitched this season. In fact, it's one of the lowest ERAs for any pitcher with as many innings pitched during the Wild Card era.

Over the last 30 seasons, 10 different pitchers have had an ERA below 2.00 in a season of 120 innings or more. The list includes Clayton Kershaw (three times) and Pedro Martinez (twice), with individual appearances from Jake Arrieta, Kevin Brown, Roger Clemens, Jacob deGrom, Zack Greinke, Greg Maddux, Blake Snell and Justin Verlander.

While these pitchers threw many more innings than Skenes this year, they also weren't rookies like Skenes and weren't pitching for a last-place team like the 2024 Pirates.

214 ERA+

A microscopic ERA may not require context, but the age of the pitcher recording the microscopic ERA adds valuable context.

Skenes turned 22 at the end of May. Only one pitcher as young – or younger – than Skenes had a better-adjusted ERA+ in a season of at least 120 innings during the integration era. That one pitcher: 20-year-old phenom Dwight Gooden for the Mets in 1985. Gooden was actually in his second MLB season when he went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA in 276.2 innings.

So while Skenes doesn't reach Gooden's level of dominance or workload, his 1.96 ERA compared to the National League average of 4.13 and adjusted for his home park gives him an ERA+ of 214, making him 114% more effective at preventing Runs more than the average NL pitcher.

Top ERA+ by 22U pitchers (Since 1947/Min. 120 IP)

• Dwight Gooden | 1985 Mets | 276.2 IP | 229 ERA+
• Paul Skenes | 2024 Pirates | 133.0 IP | 214 ERA+
• Francisco Liriano | 2006 Gemini | 121.0 IP | 208 ERA+
• Vida Blue | 1971 Athletics | 312.0 IP | 183 ERA+
• Mark Prior | 2003 | Boys 211.1 IP | 179 ERA+
• Jose Fernandez | 2013 Marlins | 172.2 IP | 176 ERA+
• Michael Soroka | 2019 Braves | 174.2 IP | 171 ERA+
• Jim Nash | 1966 Athletics | 127.0 IP | 166 ERA+
• Sam McDowell | 1965 Indians | 273.0 IP | 161 ERA+
• Mark Fidrych | 1976 Tigers | 250.1 IP | 159 ERA+

26.8 K-BB%

Analysts say strikeout percentage minus walk percentage is the best predictor of ERA. If that's the case, Skenes is in great shape for 2025.

His 33.1% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate result in a K-BB of 26.8%, the second-best all-time for a rookie pitcher with at least 120 innings.

Braves right-hander Spencer Strider holds the rookie record with a K-BB% mark of 29.7 in 2022. The remaining top five includes Twins left-hander Francisco Liriano (23.7), Gooden (23.1) and Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard (22.4).

100 spaces at 100 miles per hour

Power is the key to Skenes' success. No starting pitcher threw more pitches at 100 miles per hour or faster than he did in 2024.

Skenes threw exactly 100 throws at the century mark in 2024 – no rounding up! — more than twice as many as the Angels' Jose Soriano, who threw 46 100 mph fastballs.

In the Statcast era, Skenes has already thrown the sixth-most 100 mph throws among starters. Skenes is a rookie with one season under his belt. Everyone before him has played at least three seasons in the major leagues.

Skenes trails only Hunter Greene, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole in fastballs totaling 100 mph thrown by starters since 2015.

Rare rookie to start an All-Star Game

Skenes started the 2024 All-Star Game and pitched a flawless inning.

Only four rookies had previously started with the ASG, the last being 26-year-old Japanese import Hideo Nomo from the Dodgers in 1995.

The other rookies to start an All-Star Game were Dodgers left-hander Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, Tigers right-hander Mark Fidrych in 1976 and Senators right-hander Dave Stenhouse in 1962.