Florida Gulf Coast is watching a storm brew

Well, it happened again.

I hope that wherever this update finds you, you are safe and your recovery process is underway from Helene, a storm that is one of the worst hurricane disasters in U.S. history.

The extent of the destruction, particularly in two places near and dear to my heart, Big Bend and Western North Carolina, is immense and difficult to comprehend, even though my hometown of Tallahassee – once again – narrowly escaped the worst of all major hurricanes.

At some point I will write something to put Helene in the proper meteorological and historical context. To be honest, I just can't do it at the moment. I need time and space.

However, I want to briefly address something more pressing after hearing from so many of you via email: the potential for another round of tropical development in the Caribbean and Gulf next week.

I've been eyeing this possibility for a few days but haven't said anything, simply because I didn't want to unnecessarily worry those already traumatized with something that had a low probability of occurring.

Unfortunately, this potential is so realistic at this point that it is something you should be aware of along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

There are still so many questions about the new possible storm threat on the Gulf Coast

The 8 a.m. Sunday tropical weather outlook from the NHC had a 50 percent chance of the weather developing between Tuesday and next weekend. On Monday morning, that figure dropped to 40%. This risk is not associated with Hurricane Isaac or Tropical Storm Joyce, which have developed in recent days but do not pose a threat to landfall.

The culprit is once again the dreaded Central American Gyre (CAG), which is currently under reconstruction after Helene largely unrolled the original CAG orbit as it headed north. (That's why the hurricane was so absurdly big.)

Once the CAG re-establishes itself over the next few days, convection originating near Panama could be pushed northward around the broader circulation into the northwestern Caribbean. By mid to late next week, this system could also take advantage of the still favorable upper level environment and develop into a tropical storm. The models that were better at predicting Helene's evolution through a similar mechanism are more optimistic about this possibility.

At this distance and with no actual disturbances observed, I would simply say that it is perhaps slightly more likely that something develops in the Caribbean at some point in the next 4 to 8 days, although not a certainty. This is of course worrying as a steering ridge over the western Atlantic would in turn mean that whatever develops is likely to move northwest into the Gulf by the end of next week.

Steering favors the eastern Gulf track with the likelihood of shear

In the longer term, the forecast is extremely uncertain, as is always the case with disturbances that have not yet developed. In about a week, most reliable global ensemble models show a deep and severe dip in the jet stream entering the eastern United States.

This would tend to favor anything that eventually forms in a northeast or east-northeast direction over the eastern Gulf, more strongly than Helene's north-northeast track.

On the positive side, with this pattern we can also expect more shear over the northern or eastern Gulf Coast as something approaches. Furthermore, it doesn't look like this potential system would encapsulate the entire CAG, meaning it would be significantly smaller than Helene.

Any storm would probably be smaller, but that's cold comfort right now

Of course, given what we just went through, any storm of any size or strength is too big and too strong. As always, you should not attach importance to individual model runs in this area. There is too much uncertainty about where and when an organized circulation center might form. Just watch and wait.

In summary, a second potential threat to the Gulf Coast in the coming week is unfortunately plausible. However, this risk is currently at the surveillance and potential level rather than the preparatory or probable level.

Potential impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast are about a week or more away. However, you can wait to put your patio furniture back up and pause using your 15-foot lawn skeletons, werewolves, and Cthuls-hu until the weather forecast clears up a bit.

I will monitor the situation closely over the next few days. Keep watching the sky.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company that provides forensic meteorological expert services as well as subscription agricultural and hurricane forecasts. Visit Weathertiger.com For more information, please email Truchelut at [email protected].

Florida Gulf Coast is watching a storm brew

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