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2024 presidential election battleground states and early voting results

Electoral College Ratings

NBC News' Decision Desk details the competitiveness of many of the races that will take place in November. Several factors are considered in determining ratings, including historical election results, election polls, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (if applicable), political advertising data, and qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.

Battleground states

Arizona

Presidential Results, 1992–2020

Percentage point margin

Year Winning party margin
1992 Republican Party 2%
1996 Democratic Party 2.2%
2000 Republican Party 6.3%
2004 Republican Party 10.5%
2008 Republican Party 8.5%
2012 Republican Party 9.1%
2016 Republican Party 3.5%
2020 Democratic Party 0.3%
Biden won in 2020 by 0.3 points

Why it matters

Donald Trump won Arizona by nearly 4 percentage points in 2016 but lost the state to Joe Biden by less than half a percentage point in 2020. Polls this year showed Trump and Kamala Harris in a statistical tie.

Georgia

Presidential Results, 1992–2020

Percentage point margin

Year Winning party margin
1992 Democratic Party 0.6%
1996 Republican Party 1.2%
2000 Republican Party 11.7%
2004 Republican Party 16.6%
2008 Republican Party 5.2%
2012 Republican Party 7.8%
2016 Republican Party 5.1%
2020 Democratic Party 0.2%
Biden won in 2020 by 0.2 points

Why it matters

Donald Trump won Georgia by about 5 percentage points in 2016, but lost there in 2020 to Joe Biden by fewer than 12,000 votes. The race this year is neck-and-neck, with Trump and Harris statistically tied in polls.

Michigan

Presidential Results, 1992–2020

Percentage point margin

Year Winning party margin
1992 Democratic Party 7.4%
1996 Democratic Party 13.2%
2000 Democratic Party 5.1%
2004 Democratic Party 3.4%
2008 Democratic Party 16.5%
2012 Democratic Party 9.5%
2016 Republican Party 0.2%
2020 Democratic Party 2.8%
Biden won in 2020 by 2.8 points

Why it matters

Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016, surprising Democrats in a state Republicans had not won since 1988. Joe Biden won there in 2020 – and beat Trump by three percentage points. With Kamala Harris and Trump statistically tied, Election Day is headed for a “tie.”

Nebraska District 2

Presidential Results, 1992–2020

Percentage point margin

Year Winning party margin
1992 Republican Party 17.2%
1996 Republican Party 18.7%
2000 Republican Party 29%
2004 Republican Party 33.2%
2008 Republican Party 14.9%
2012 Republican Party 21.8%
2016 Republican Party 25%
2020 Republican Party 19.1%
Trump won in 2020 by 19.1 points

Why it matters

Nebraska gives its two congressional districts one vote each in the Electoral College, and the 2nd District has split from the rest of the reliably conservative state. Donald Trump won the district in 2016 but lost it to Joe Biden in 2020. The district is trending toward Democrat Kamala Harris in polls this year.

Nevada

Presidential Results, 1992–2020

percentage point range

Year Winning party margin
1992 Democratic Party 2.6%
1996 Democratic Party 1%
2000 Republican Party 3.5%
2004 Republican Party 2.6%
2008 Democratic Party 12.5%
2012 Democratic Party 6.7%
2016 Democratic Party 2.4%
2020 Democratic Party 2.4%
Biden won in 2020 by 2.4 points

Why it matters

The Senate race in Nevada is between Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, a military veteran who the party hopes can lead to a victory in a swing state with Republican support in the presidential election.

North Carolina

Presidential Results, 1992–2020

Percentage point margin

Year Winning party margin
1992 Republican Party 0.8%
1996 Republican Party 4.7%
2000 Republican Party 12.8%
2004 Republican Party 12.4%
2008 Democratic Party 0.3%
2012 Republican Party 2%
2016 Republican Party 3.7%
2020 Republican Party 1.3%
Trump won in 2020 by 1.3 points

Why it matters

North Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat for president since 2008, but Kamala Harris' campaign has targeted it as a state she can win, buoyed by its large black population. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by 3 percentage points and in 2020 by 1 percentage point.

Pennsylvania

Presidential Results, 1992–2020

Percentage point margin

Year Winning party margin
1992 Democratic Party 9%
1996 Democratic Party 9.2%
2000 Democratic Party 4.2%
2004 Democratic Party 2.5%
2008 Democratic Party 10.3%
2012 Democratic Party 5.4%
2016 Republican Party 0.7%
2020 Democratic Party 1.2%
Biden won in 2020 by 1.2 points

Why it matters

Pennsylvania is emerging as the most critical battleground state in the 2024 election. Donald Trump won the state by less than one percentage point in 2016 and lost it by about one percentage point in 2020. Kamala Harris has remained competitive there and the state is classified as a toss-up.

Wisconsin

Presidential Results, 1992–2020

percentage point range

Year Winning party margin
1992 Democratic Party 4.4%
1996 Democratic Party 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party 0.2%
2004 Democratic Party 0.4%
2008 Democratic Party 13.9%
2012 Democratic Party 6.8%
2016 Republican Party 0.8%
2020 Democratic Party 0.6%
Biden won in 2020 by 0.6 points

Why it matters

Wisconsin is a battleground state that swings between Democrats and Republicans. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by less than one percentage point. Joe Biden won there in 2020, also by less than one percentage point.

National early voting

474,879 absentee and early in-person voting nationally

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Registered Democrats

Registered Republicans

Other

Data not available

13,345,313 absentee and early in-person voting requests were made statewide

Filter by:

Registered Democrats

Registered Republicans

Other

Data not available

Last updated Oct. 2. Party registration is based on a combination of state-provided partisanship (where available) and TargetSmart's party affiliation model. At the national level, early voting totals are a summary of daily state totals as determined by TargetSmart and state officials.Data provided by TargetSmart

Results of past presidential elections

Electoral College results, 1992–2020

1992B.ClintonGHW Bush

States' vote margin in the 2020 presidential election

The district size represents the number of electoral votes in that state.

The expected vote is the total number of votes expected in a particular race after all votes have been counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information about the number of early votes cast as well as information our election reporters received from county election officials on Election Day. The number may change as NBC News gathers new information.

source: National Electoral Pool (NEP)

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