Tesla's third quarter deliveries are expected before the Robotaxi event

Tesla will report vehicle production and delivery numbers for the third quarter on Wednesday.

Analysts expect Elon Musk's automaker to report about 463,310 deliveries, according to FactSet StreetAccount estimates. This would include around 435,900 Tesla Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs.

Tesla reported 435,059 deliveries and production of 430,488 vehicles for the same period last year before selling the Cybertruck. Tesla most recently reported deliveries of 443,956 and production of 410,831 vehicles for the second quarter of 2024.

If Tesla meets analysts' expectations, it would mean a 6.5% year-over-year increase in deliveries after declines in the first and second quarters of 2024.

Deliveries are not defined in Tesla's financial disclosures, but they represent the closest approximation of units sold reported by the company.

In the third quarter, as it did earlier this year, Tesla continued to offer a variety of incentives and financing plans to boost sales volume, particularly in the world's largest electric vehicle market, mainland China.

Tesla hasn't provided specific forecasts for the full 2024 delivery year, but the company has said it expects a slower delivery growth rate this year than last year. Wells Fargo pointed out this lack of guidance, saying in a note that it expects 1.63 million deliveries for Tesla for the full year and around 440,000 deliveries for the third quarter, below consensus.

Goldman Sachs said last week it expects Tesla deliveries and production to be “in line with consensus, driven largely by strength in the Chinese market.” Goldman Sachs recommended buying call options ahead of Wednesday's report.

Robotaxi day in focus

Shares of the electric vehicle maker have risen more than 20% over the past month on expectations that deliveries could improve year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter and ahead of the company's Robotaxi Day on October 10.

Tesla plans to host investors and fans at its “We, Robot” marketing event Warner Bros. Discovery Film studio in Los Angeles.

The automaker is expected to unveil the design of a “special robot taxi,” which Musk previously called CyberCab. Tesla may also provide updates on its Optimus humanoid robotics project and other automotive and AI-driven products and services.

Tesla electric vehicle sales and revenue fell in the first half of 2024, and the company still needs to deliver a self-driving system that can function as a robotaxi without a human driver behind the wheel ready to steer or brake at any time. Tesla also renamed its premium driving assistance option “Full Self-Driving Supervised” and added a disclaimer-style term at the end.

Meanwhile, several competitors in the autonomous vehicle industry have begun producing robotaxis and operating commercial robotaxi services. Rivals include alphabet-own Waymo in the USA as well as Pony.ai and Baidu in China. AmazonThe group's own company Zoox is preparing to launch a commercial robotaxi service in the USA.

Erosion of the Tesla brand

Some customers' interest in buying Tesla vehicles has been dampened by the brand's strong association with Musk.

According to CivicScience, the company's popularity declined among both liberal and conservative consumers in July. Among Democrats, approval of Tesla fell to 18% in July, compared to 39% in January, and among Republicans, it fell to 22%, compared to 36% in January.

Musk – who also SpaceX,

In July, he publicly supported former President Donald Trump and posted on

He has shared political misinformation and deepfakes with his massive online fan base on X, according to reports from The Associated Press, CNN, NBC News, The New York Times and others. Before Musk acquired Twitter, now known as X, his feed was more focused on Tesla and SpaceX, according to a Washington Post analysis.

Regarding posts Musk made recently on The Springfield Police Division, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and other local groups all said the claims were unfounded.

It remains to be seen whether left-leaning customers' view of Musk will impact deliveries this year. Pew Research has found that Democrats view battery-electric vehicles much more positively and are more likely to buy them than Republicans in the US