12 states have switched to Kamala Harris in the last month – Nate Silver Model

According to pollster Nate Silver's forecast, 12 states leaned toward Kamala Harris last month.

These include Michigan, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas and New Hampshire as well as Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Nebraska's 2nd District, Washington and Missouri.

Seven states, including four swing states, have now turned to Donald Trump, including Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, California, Arizona and Maryland.

Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, Rhode Island and Indiana have remained the same, with the latter leaning Republican and the other two leaning Democratic.

Nebraska's 2nd District, which voted Democratic in the last election, saw the strongest trend toward Democrats last month, moving 3.1 points toward the party. This is followed by Missouri and Montana, both of which are traditionally heavily Republican states, and Washington, which is heavily Democratic.

Florida and Virginia also saw trends toward Democrats of more than 1 point last month. Neither is considered a swing state, but polls in both states have shown the race to be more competitive than in recent years, with Harris leading Trump by 7.3 points in Virginia and Trump leading Harris by 3.6 points in Florida . In 2020, Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points while Trump won Florida by 3 points.

The other six states are trending toward Democrats by less than a point, including the swing states of Michigan and Nevada, both of which are currently led by Harris, according to Silver's poll tracker.

The Republicans had better luck in the swing states, with Wisconsin and Georgia moving closer to the Republicans by 1.4 and 1.7 points, respectively. North Carolina and Arizona saw smaller shifts of 0.1 and 0.8 points, respectively.

Harris is leading in Wisconsin, while Trump leads by very narrow margins in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, Silver's poll tracker shows.

California, a traditionally Democratic state, saw the largest shift toward Republicans last month, shifting 2.7 points toward the GOP. Minnesota and Maryland saw shifts of 1.8 and 1.3 points, respectively. Both are solidly democratic states.

Key swing state

Meanwhile, voters in Pennsylvania, where Harris currently leads Trump by 1.2 points, continue to lean Democratic.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

The forecast is a positive sign for Harris, who currently leads Trump by 3.4 points nationally and is expected to win the Electoral College. To win in November, Harris needs 44 electoral votes from the battleground states, while Trump would need 51.

538's poll tracker shows Trump leading Harris by one point in Arizona and Georgia and by 0.6 points in North Carolina, while Harris is ahead by between one and two points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Silver's model also shows Trump leading by 0.5 to 1.5 points in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris is ahead by 1 to 2 points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Both pollsters show Harris' lead has decreased since Sept. 2 in all swing states except Nevada, where her lead has increased from 0.4 to 1.4 points, according to 538.

Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows Harris is expected to win in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, which would be enough to secure her a victory, while Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.

However, poll numbers in swing states remain close, meaning it's still anyone's guess to win the election.

“Slim margins in swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades — the result could be closer than any election in nearly 150 years,” 538 wrote on its website.