How does Tyler Allgeier change Bijan Robinson's outlook on fantasy football?

Going into the 2024 NFL season, things didn't go as expected for the top running backs in fantasy football drafts. In fact, things have become quite chaotic.

Christian McCaffrey, who held an average draft position (ADP) of first overall and RB1 in semi-PPR (via FantasyPros), continues to battle Achilles tendonitis and has not yet made his season debut. Breece Hall (RB2 ADP) and Bijan Robinson (RB3 ADP) are also not safe. Hall's efficiency was lacking, with -0.08 rushing yards above expected per carry (according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats), which resulted in Braelon Allen getting an increased workload. The same thing is happening to Robinson as Tyler Allgeier becomes more of a threat to Bijan's workload.

What does this mean for the future Atlanta Falcons backfield? Is it time to sell Robinson or can he still maintain his high ADP?

Using Bijan Robinson

According to PlayerProfiler, Robinson is still under a lot of pressure this season. He holds a snap share of 83.3% (third highest share of his position), an opportunity share of 75.0% (seventh highest value), and 47.6 weighted opportunities (sixth highest value). Robinson took at least 75.0% of the snaps from Week 1 to Week 3. So what's the problem?

The usage concerns are primarily due to the fourth week results. Bijan played 36 snaps (64%); his previous low was 46 snaps (75%). He recorded just 11 touches in Week 4, while 18 touches was his previous low in Week 3. Of course, part of that was due to Kirk Cousins ​​scoring 35 pass attempts. Atlanta's passing percentage of 70.0% was a bit uncharacteristic (58.1% on the season).

While the Falcons' carries were down in general, this is far more concerning. Allgeier made his presence known in Week 4.

Tyler Allgeier's expanding role

Prior to Week 4, Allgeier posted snap counts of 10, 13, and 13. These increased to 21 snaps last week, a snap rate of 38%. For comparison: Allgeier's previous high was 21% in weeks 2 and 3.

The ball contacts were also almost equal, with Allgeier having a total of 10 to Bijan's 11. The biggest upset was the effort in the second half of the 26:24 win over the New Orleans Saints.

Allgeier played 13 snaps in the second half to Robinson's 14 and recorded seven rushing attempts while Bijan recorded just one. If that isn't eye-opening, I'm not sure what is.

This could end up mirroring the 2023 season, which gave Robinson a 68.6% snap share. While that was still the ninth-highest mark at his position, his chance percentage ranked 31st, and Bijan was 17th at his position in fantasy points per game with that workload. That's not nearly good enough for an ADP of RB3.

You're probably wondering why Allgeier dominated carries in the second half of Week 4. Let's take a look at the statistics.

Falcons backfield fantasy football outlook

It's simple: Allgeier was the much more efficient defender. He averages 6.1 yards per carry, compared to Robinson's 4.1 yards per carry. Since the Falcons have Pro Football Focus' seventh-best run-blocking grade, Bijan's yards per carry are nothing to write home about.

It continues as Allgeier records 0.94 rushing yards per carry (RYOE/C) above expectations. Among qualified players, this would have been the sixth-best mark in football a season ago; Allgeier was that good. Meanwhile, Robinson is at -0.33 RYOE/C. It was a completely different story in 2023 as Bijan held 0.38 RYOE/C compared to Allgeier's -0.38. It made perfect sense why Robinson was taking on nearly 70% of the carries, but from what we've seen so far, Bijan's workload shouldn't continue to rise with poor efficiency.

The biggest concern is rushing attempts, as Robinson is still expected to dominate receiving work. He has 16 goals and 15 catches in four games, while Allgeier has only recorded 3 goals and catches. Even in Week 4, Bijan doubled Allgeier's receiving effort with four targets and catches to his counterpart's two.

Robinson has a target percentage of 14.2%, while Allgeier has a measly 2.7%. Additionally, Bijan was still efficient with 10.7 receiving yards per contest.

That gives Robinson some confidence going forward, but what would fewer porters mean? It's hard not to worry about Bijan's work in the red zone if this continues. Neither player had red zone carries in Week 4, but the two defenders are evenly split, accounting for 50.0% of red zone rushing attempts this season.

Robinson has just one rushing touchdown this season. Alarm bells should be ringing as Allgeier hit 42.9% of red zone carries in 2023 while Bijan scored just 27.4% of rushing attempts. Robinson's imagination was stunted by just four rushing touchdowns a season ago; After the Week 4 breakup, we could be headed for more of the same.

However, this is more about diminishing Robinson's value. Don't expect Allgeier to be a consistent fantasy producer, as he ranked 42nd in fantasy points per game at his position last season (7.6). Allgeier is also averaging just 5.3 fantasy points per game in half-PPR in four contests.

While Bijan still has intriguing PPR value thanks to his receiving work, it seems unlikely that Robinson will live up to his RB3 ADP. Allgeier's efficiency as a rusher poses a major threat, as we saw in Week 4.

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