Joe Musgrove undergoes Tommy John surgery

Padres right-handed hitter Joe Musgrove has suffered an injury to the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow and will undergo Tommy John surgery, according to general manager AJ Preller. ESPN's Alden González was one of those who made the announcement

The news isn't entirely surprising as Musgrove has struggled with elbow problems all year, but it's still difficult for the right-hander and the club. At the end of May he was on the injured list for the second time this year, both appearances due to inflammation of the right elbow. In early June it was reported that he had a bone spur in his elbow, which ultimately kept him out of action until August.

He had struggled at the start of the season but finished strong. At the time of this second IL stint, he had made ten starts but had a 5.66 earned run average during that time. After returning in August, he posted a 2.15 ERA in seven starts. He struck out 29.1% of opponents and walked 4.1% in this stretch run.

It appeared he was in strong form and would become an important part of the club's postseason team. After Michael King Musgrove was pushed in the first game of the club's Wild Card series against Atlanta and was given the ball for the second game. He struck out four opponents without drawing a walk in 3 2/3 innings, but then left the game along with members of the training staff after throwing just 44 pitches. The brothers later announced his problem as elbow tightness.

The Padres managed to win that game and advance to the Division Series against the Dodgers, but manager Mike Shildt announced earlier today that Musgrove would not appear in the series. Shildt hasn't made any statements beyond that, but it's now clear that Musgrove's injury will affect far more than just the NLDS.

In the short term, the Padres will try to make it through the postseason without Musgrove. You have king, Dylan Stop it And Yu Darvish as their best rotation options, with Martin Perez And Matt Waldron also opportunities to get involved.

They will also have to survive the entire 2025 season without Musgrove, which should make starting pitching an offseason priority again. Darvish is still under contract, while both King and Cease can be retained through arbitration for another season before hitting free agency after 2025. Pérez is about to become a free agent, but Waldron is still in his pre-arbitration years.

Cease, King, Darvish and Waldron are a decent team of four, but the club will likely look to strengthen this group. The lack of starting pitching depth was a notable issue last winter, prompting the club to address the issue Juan Soto Trade. When they traded Soto to the Yankees, they brought King back, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez And Drew Thorpewith Thorpe later being traded to the White Sox as part of the deal to get Cease.

Brito has been used primarily in relief this year. Vásquez made 20 starts, but with a 4.87 ERA and a moderate strikeout rate of 14.4%. He also struggled badly in the minors, posting an 8.21 ERA in Triple-A. Maybe someone like Adrian Morejon could be stretched out in the bullpen after his solid year, but his notable injury history would pose a risk.

Budget concerns were also an important factor for the Padres last winter. The club's streaming deal with Diamond Sports Group fell through in 2023, forcing MLB to take over the broadcast as the club was generating less revenue in that department. That led to the Padres dealing Soto and ducking the competitive balance tax.

RosterResource puts San Diego's 2025 CBT figure at $184 million, well below next year's base threshold of $241 million. However, this number does not take into account the contracts for arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz expects San Diego's eight-player class to bring in a total of $46.7 million. A few non-tenders could bring that number down, but most of it will go to core players like King, Cease and Luis ArraezSo it's more likely the Padres are in the $230 million range before making any offseason moves.

Preller has to deal with the departures of impending free agents Ha Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano And Kyle Higashioka. If the budget gets tight again, he may have to get creative in the winter, which wouldn't be unusual for him. He is one of the most active decision makers in baseball and always seems to be involved in all free agent and trade discussions. With this news he will have another item on his to-do list. Musgrove is under contract through 2027 and will earn $20 million annually as part of the five-year, $100 million extension he and the club signed in 2022.