Navy vs. Air Force prediction, selection, distribution, football match odds, where to watch, TV channel, live stream

The Navy travels to the Air Force on Saturday for the first leg of the 2024 Commander-In-Chief's Trophy series, one of the most prestigious prizes college football's regular season has to offer. For those who don't know, the Army, Air Force and Navy have competed every year since 1972 for the CIC trophy, which is awarded to the military academy with the best record against their brothers in arms.

Navy hasn't won the CIC Trophy since 2019, while Air Force last won it in 2022 in its third 10-win season in four years. But the Navy-Air Force rivalry predates the trophy. The two teams first met in Baltimore in 1960, making Saturday's game the 57th meeting ever between the two teams.

Air Force has a 34-22 advantage in previous meetings, bolstered by a recent four-game winning streak. Air Force outscored Navy 93-26, allowing just 169 yards per game in that span.

The Midshipmen have beaten the Falcons just twice since 2016, with their last win coming in the 2019 season. Navy hasn't won in Colorado since 2012.

That being said, the prospect of this game feels different. Navy is off to a 4-0 start in its second year under coach Brian Newberry, while Air Force is mired in a 1-3 record without a win against an FBS opponent.

Navy vs. Air Force: What you need to know

Watch out for the…Navy airstrike?: Don't worry, Navy didn't change its offensive philosophy overnight. The Midshipmen still rely almost exclusively on the triple option to wear down their opponents. But they took advantage of quarterback Blake Horvath's arm to catch their opponents off guard. Horvath threw touchdown passes of 77 and 74 yards in a Week 5 win over UAB and is the only FBS quarterback to throw two 70-yard touchdown throws in the same game this year.

The Mids are averaging 178.8 yards passing per game, which isn't much for most teams, but it's their highest since joining the American Athletic Conference nearly a decade ago. Horvath's versatility is a big reason why Navy is averaging 46 points per contest, the highest they have scored so early in 106 years.

Air Force wants to stop skidding: While the Navy's offense roiled its opponents, the Air Force's offense struggled to build any momentum this year. It's no exaggeration to call the Falcons one of the worst offenses in the country. Just look at the numbers:

• Points per game: 12.5 (131st in FBS)
• Yards per game: 243 (131st)
• Yards rushing per game: 176.8 (fewest since 1981)
• Passing touchdowns: Zero (Only school in FBS without one)

Air Force's problems extend far beyond this season. After a stellar 8-0 start to the 2023 season that saw the Falcons earn their first College Football Playoff ranking in program history, they are 1-7 in their last eight games. If you get a win against FCS Merrimack, that means 0-7 against FBS opponents since October 28, 2023. The Falcons haven't started a season 1-4 since 2017.

Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, by the numbers: Although a loss will not immediately eliminate either school from CIC competition, there is obviously a lot at stake in Saturday's game. Navy has lost its last four combined games against Army and Air Force — its longest losing streak in the series in 30 years. The Air Force has not been able to prevail in the CIC series since 2017. Both Navy and Army, both 4-0 for the first time since 1945, are shaping up to be formidable opponents.

How to watch Navy vs. Air Force live

Date: Saturday, Oct. 5 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Falcon Stadium – Air Force Academy, Colorado
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App (free), Paramount+ with Showtime (try free)

Navy vs Air Force Prediction, Tips

While history is certainly not on the Navy's side, this is a game – at least on paper – that the Midshipmen should win by a wide margin. Air Force has had at least two possessions in each of its three games against FBS opponents. The Falcons weren't particularly good on either side of the ball. They scored in double figures for the second time this season, putting up 19 points against Wyoming in Week 5 and still losing 31-19. Two of Air Force's opponents this year have exceeded the 30-point mark, and now it faces a Navy team that leads the AAC with 46 points per game. Selection: Marine -9.5 (-113)

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