Three keys to the Badgers' victory over Purdue

The Badgers will look to maintain their historic winning streak over Purdue, which has spanned several decades and grown to 17 straight wins.

BadgerBlitz.com breaks down the three keys to the Badgers' game against the Boilermakers.

When: Saturday, October 5 (11:00 a.m. CT)

Where: Camp Randall Stadium (capacity 76,057)

All-time series: Wisconsin leads 53-29-8 (UW leads 29-12-5 in Madison)

TV: BTN (Mark Followill on play-by-play, Jake Butt as analyst and Brooke Fletcher as sideline reporter)

Local radio: Badger Sports Network (Matt Lepay on play-by-play, Mark Tauscher as analyst, Patrick Herb as sideline reporter)

Betting line: Wisconsin -12.5

Expected playing weather: 67 degrees and partly cloudy

Wisconsin struggled mightily in this area against USC, allowing the Trojans to convert a whopping 11 of 17 third downs. The Badgers repeatedly pushed the USC offense from 3rd-and-medium to 3rd-and-long and still were unable to get off the field. This often boiled down to the Trojans simply winning their 1-on-1 duels.

This problem didn't just crop up in Los Angeles. Wisconsin allows opponents to convert about 46 percent of their third down conversion attempts, which ranks 117th nationally. Finishing was a focus for the Badgers and something they struggled with a lot. The third down issue is a perfect example: Wisconsin plays well on early downs but falters when it has a chance to get off the field.

Meanwhile, Purdue's third-down offense wasn't exactly atrocious, but it's nothing special either. The Boilermakers convert about 35 percent of their third down conversion attempts, which ranks them 97th nationally. Ultimately, USC was so proficient in this area last week because it consistently won its individual games. Purdue's offensive weapons don't pose the same threat in 1-on-1 situations. The Badgers need to take advantage of the relative lack of playmakers and get Purdue's offense off the field.

If you've been following pretty much all of the coverage leading up to this game, you know by now that Purdue has one of the softest run defenses in America. They particularly struggled outside of the tackles, as much of the damage done to the Boilermakers came from outside runs. Jet sweeps, end-arounds and sprint options cost this team yards. Their pass rushers couldn't break through, and that hurt them tremendously.

Purdue is trying everything in its power to stop the bleeding from opponents' rushing attacks. Last week, Star Safety Dillon Thieneman was deployed closer to the line of scrimmage while also being the Boilermakers' best linebacker Kydran Jenkins was more often used on the sidelines. It will be interesting to see if Purdue respects Wisconsin's passing game or if it tries to live with a single high safety and a double down while stopping the run.

Either way, the Badgers must look to exploit this weakness. Chez MellusiThe ability to get to the rim will certainly be missing, but Cade Yacamelli has shown that trait this season, becoming a nice slasher at tailback for Wisconsin. Tawee Walker is more of a runner who runs between the tackles, but he has also shown the ability to beat defenses to the outside, as he did on his 18-yard touchdown dash against USC.

Wisconsin's secondary put together a brutal performance against USC, but they'll have to grind their teeth this week. Purdue quarterback Hudson map has thrown four interceptions in four games, three of which were returned for touchdowns. In fact, Card has thrown a pick-six in three straight games.

His pick-six against Oregon State was incredibly fortuitous. A swing pass to the tailback Reggie Love III bounced off the running back's foot straight into his waiting arms Zakaih Saezwho marched into the end zone unscathed. Still, Card also threw pick-sixes against Notre Dame and Nebraska. Not only do the defensive backs get their hands on Card's passes, they also close out the play and bring it back to the house.

After an expectedly too-good-to-be-true against Indiana State in which he completed 96 percent of his passes, Card's accuracy has plummeted during the Boilermakers' three-game losing streak. The Badger defensive backs should have plenty of opportunities to make plays on the football.

I have no confidence in any aspect of Wisconsin's game right now, but this Purdue team is exponentially worse. Take a look at the tape of the Boilermakers from Corvallis two weeks ago, and it's no exaggeration to say that this is some of the worst run defense and tackling I've ever seen. That won't be nice, because the Badgers don't have much to offer either. Nevertheless: Next Saturday it will be the 18th in a row.

Wisconsin 27, Purdue 13

Most Badgers teams throughout history would completely shut down this Boilermakers squad based on their poor run defense alone. But this Wisconsin team has seemed lost on offense in recent weeks, and their running game is in shaky shape following Mellusi's departure. Still, I trust Walker and Yacamelli enough to be confident that Wisconsin can overcome its own problems.

Wisconsin 24, Purdue 14

If there's a real game on the 2024 schedule, it's Saturday against Purdue. I'm not sure this Wisconsin team is capable of winning by a significant margin, but I think the Badgers can pull out a comfortable win over a bad Boilermakers team.

Wisconsin 28, Purdue 13

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