Caleb Williams-Jayden Daniels comparison: Did the Bears choose the wrong QB with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft?

The drastic difference in play in September begs the question: Did the Bears make the wrong decision in drafting No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams instead of Jayden Daniels?

Each passer is only four games into his NFL career. If it was a movie, it would be in the opening scene, and no one in their right mind would specifically judge a movie based on what happens in the first five minutes of the movie.

But first impressions often count. This opening scene can have a lasting impact. It can set the stage for everything else.

Sure, it's early. So my answer to this blunt question is fluid. It must be.

Still, it wouldn't have been too early to make a decision in this scenario a season ago, when CJ Stroud entered his first four contests with a quarterback rating of 100.6 and an 8.03 yards per attempt average, compared to 77.0 from Bryce Young Rating and YPA of 5.21.

By the way, Daniels' rating is currently 107.4. His YPA is 8.5. Williams' passer rating is 72.0 and his yards per attempt is 5.6.

For the record, I don't think Williams will become Young 2.0. He is naturally much more gifted as a thrower and improviser. But the differences in production a month into their rookie campaigns are eerily similar.

Let's dig deeper here. Much deeper. Below is an extended stat comparison between Williams and Daniels prior to Week 5 action.

What stands out? The accuracy numbers. But it's important not to view these as binary. The average depth of the target is important. Taken together, these numbers represent vastly different offensive philosophies in Washington and Chicago.

Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury prioritized easy, high-percentage shots from beyond the arc for Daniels. And he took it. The Bears have done the opposite, relying more on Williams' live arm and natural aggressiveness as a passer, and the No. 1 overall pick has stayed true to form, often trying to play deeper players with average results.

To make this disparity clear, check out this graphic from PFF's Judah Fortgang:

Daniels sees more separation than any other quarterback in football to date, which of course may be due to individual pass-catching options winning their one-on-one matchups And The players with the skill positions in question are being worked out.

The separation Williams has experienced is about league average, which of course suggests that it was more difficult for him as a passer. However, it is worth noting that its accuracy was subpar.

We're already done. This graphic from Fortgang includes a newly created metric called “Destroy Rate,” which he explains in the caption. Note the location of Daniels and Williams here.

Daniels currently has the lowest destroy rate among qualified quarterbacks in the NFL. Essentially, he doesn't create problems for himself or the commander's offense if they aren't there to begin with. Williams, on the other hand, is “destroying” the game at almost the same pace as Deshaun Watson. Yikes.

In this case, I don't focus as much on EPA, especially because we're isolating quarterback play. For me, because EPA is an offensive statistic, not just a quarterback statistic. But the rate of destruction? Yes. And it was strikingly different.

These days, the running element at the quarterback position can no longer be overlooked, and Daniels was also significantly better on the ground than Williams. The Commanders' rookie leads the NFL with 23 scrambles in four games. They accumulated 168 yards and nine first downs. Williams rushed just seven times, for a respectable 68 yards with three rushing first downs.

At Oklahoma and USC, Williams' creativity, which defenders lacked, was part of the many Patrick Mahomes comparisons. But there was no doubt who posed the more dynamic running threat between Williams and Daniels. In 2023 at LSU, Daniels ran for 1,134 yards with a seismic pop of 8.4 yards per carry.

The Bears definitely should have known – and they probably did – that they were going with the less threatening design run/scrambling talent when they drafted Williams with the first pick.

But even though mobility has become a “necessary luxury” for quarterbacks in the NFL, throwing the football is still the aspect on which success depends most. However, to counter what Daniels can do with his legs when he creates distance – and not just by dodging defenders behind the line – Williams has to do it so much better a passerby. It's important to keep this in mind.

And I don't think it's a coincidence that Williams had his best performance ever – measured by passer rating, which was 106.6 – in the Week 4 win over the Rams with Keenan Allen back on the field.

A season ago with the Chargers, Allen had 108 catches for over 1,200 yards. According to FantasyPoints.com, Allen ranked fourth in the NFL in separation score among the 64 receivers who rushed for at least 400 yards. This new metric is simply an average of how well a receiver moves up (or not) on a grading scale on each qualifying route. And he currently ranks 23rd in separation score among the 188 wideouts who have run at least 40 routes. Allen is still the most accomplished route runner there is.

And in the season-opening win over the Titans, he played 38 snaps, catching three passes for 19 yards, and 41 snaps in the Week 4 win over the Rams, catching four passes for 29 yards.

While these numbers certainly don't jump out at the stats, these are seven games that could very well have ended in an incompletion, a sack, or a poor decision had Allen not been on the field. And his presence has gravity, a kind of ripple effect on the rest of Chicago's receiver group and the defenders tasked with covering them. Let’s continue to see how Allen directly impacts Williams’ maturation.

For now, I won't write about whether the Bears made the wrong decision to select Williams No. 1 overall instead of Daniels.

But if we compare the opening scenes, Daniels is better conceived and highlights the main character's strengths more clearly.