Rams red zone stats: Was QB Matthew Stafford bad in the red zone?

One of the biggest discussions surrounding the Los Angeles Rams' 2024 season is their issues in the red zone. When you rank 29th in the NFL with a 41.2 red zone touchdown percentage and the only teams worse are the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos, serious questions are asked.

As with most things when it comes to NFL offenses, success and failure usually come down to the quarterback. It's no different when it comes to the Rams' current failures in the red zone. Head coach Sean McVay certainly takes a lot of criticism, but the next person people will point to is the quarterback and Matthew Stafford.

When you look at Stafford's red zone stats, things don't look good. Stafford has completed just eight of 22 pass attempts in the red zone, for a completion rate of 36 percent. Among quarterbacks with more than 10 pass attempts in the red zone, Stafford's 36 percent completion rate is second-worst, ahead of only Joe Burrow.

Stafford's 1.62 adjusted net yards per attempt in the red zone is the sixth lowest, according to Fantasy Data Points. His completion percentage of -34.5 above expectations is the second lowest in the NFL, ahead of only Anthony Richardson. If you want to see every throw from Matthew Stafford in the red zone this season, you can find them in the Twitter (X) thread below. However, I will also refer to some of these pieces here.

It's easy to look at this stat and say Stafford needs to get better. That's not necessarily wrong in certain situations, but at the same time, some of the throws Stafford is asked to make are low percentage throws.

Seven of Stafford's 15 incomplete passes in the red zone came via iso plays to the back pylon or corner fade-type routes. This is a low percentage play that frankly needs to be taken out of the playbook. Unless the Rams talk Calvin Johnson out of retirement, the corner fade must be eliminated.

When it comes to the corner fade, countless repetitions are required in practice. Because of the precision required in timing the play, the quarterback and wide receiver must be on the same page. The Rams successfully pulled off a fade and won the Super Bowl when Stafford hit Cooper Kupp over Eli Apple. However, this current Rams team makes the goal line transition to Demarcus Robinson and Jordan Whittington. According to Pro Football Focus, Johnson is the only player to ever complete more than 50 percent of his fade route targets. Again, the Rams don’t have Calvin Johnson. McVay said this week about the team's struggles in the red zone:

“It starts with us putting players in a position to be successful and then given the opportunities or decisions we make, is there an opportunity to execute on them at a consistent level? I think when these things are aligned, a lot of good things happen. Unfortunately that wasn't the case the other day and that's what cost us… Sometimes it's the execution of the pass [or] Sometimes it's about detecting lightning and where is our quick element throw? The field shortens everything. The margin for error becomes even smaller. ”

There's something to be said for the Rams and Stafford not having Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the red zone. Among wide receivers with at least 10 routes in the red zone, Kupp ranks 11th in win rate at 27.3 percent. Kupp has been one of the best wide receivers in the red zone over the last four years and his presence in that area will be missed. While players like Robinson give the Rams some size in that area of ​​the field and there's a lot to like about Whittington, the red zone is an area of ​​the field where it's important for a quarterback to have strong confidence in his wide receivers.

The problem right now is that the Rams' red zone offense doesn't have many fastballs. The fastball has become a curveball and gets stuck in the middle of the strike zone. Currently, the Rams rely on low scoring games. This puts more pressure on the high-rate games to succeed, and when they fail, the underlying problem is highlighted.

Through four games, the Rams are fifth in pass percentage at 12.5 percent and are performing above expectations in the red zone. Stafford's 22 pass attempts in the red zone are also the fifth-most. Passing the ball in the red zone isn't a bad thing, but they throw the ball into that area of ​​the field too often and that has led to more obvious passing situations where the windows are narrower. The Rams' success in the red zone falls entirely on Matthew Stafford's shoulders.

Let's use the Bears game as an example: The Rams' first possession in the red zone came on 3rd-and-3 from the 18-yard line. The play call was a planned wheel route to Colby Parkinson, which was intercepted but called back. This is a low percentage game.

On the second possession in the red zone, the Rams turned 2nd-and-5 into 2nd-and-15 after a pass interference penalty. This turns a positive situation into one that is difficult to recover from for any offense.

The final possession in the red zone begins with 1st-and-goal from the nine yard line. The first play is a throw to Whittington in the far corner. A script from Kyren Williams that was supposed to get the offense into the five-yard zone is blown up for just a two-point lead. On third down, it looks like Stafford has Atwell under control, but the blitz is unblocked, forcing an inaccurate throw.

Again, there are things the Rams could do better. On 3rd-and-3, the play call should not be a wheel route to Colby Parkinson down the sideline. A mental error ruined the second chance in the red zone. Finally, the play calling and play design on the third possession were fine. Unfortunately, the defense had also just put together a good game. Regardless of whether it is a matter of mental errors or insufficient play, the offense and therefore Stafford are not set up for success. Stafford said:

“You look back and look at the tape and there are opportunities to either put us in a more favorable position on third down in the red zone or move the ball to the end zone with some of the things we can do as players bring.”

That's not to say Stafford was perfect in the red zone. The Rams need him to be more precise and make smarter decisions in that area of ​​the field. His interception against the Lions was a serious mistake. Even though the Rams were trailing by a large margin, the Rams quarterback didn't miss a chance in the red zone against the Arizona Cardinals that could have potentially resulted in a touchdown. Whether it's a lack of confidence or other reasons, the Rams' offense won't get any better if their quarterback is also hesitant.

When you look at the stats, it's easy to see that Stafford has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the red zone this season. However, a lot of context is needed, and the fact is that the offense isn't giving him success. During his first three years in Los Angeles, Stafford had a touchdown-to-interception ratio in the red zone of 56:1. Stafford has never been the most accurate quarterback in the red zone, but it looks like the offense isn't giving him easy options either.