MLB predictions, picks, best bets: Mets battle Phillies' Cristopher Sánchez, Shohei Ohtani remains hot

After a dud – unless you're a Guardians fan – of a first game, what followed was the rest of the first day of divisional play in the 2024 Major League Baseball playoffs. What an exciting day of action. Speaking of action, we played most of our games here yesterday, so let's keep the good times going.

RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Cristopher Sánchez

Some fans might have expected the Phillies to go with Aaron Nola at No. 2, but there's a reason for Sánchez, the All-Star, to get the nod here. He had a 2.21 ERA at home and a 5.02 ERA on the road this season. So the Phillies certainly felt it was essential to get him the ball at Citizens Bank Park in this series.

Severino just pitched in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings while recording just three strikeouts. This came after he had a 5.63 ERA in his last three regular season starts, a 4.55 ERA in his last 11 regular season starts, and a 5.00 ERA in his last 15.

However, remember that in Game 1 of the doubleheader Monday, Game 3 of the WCS and Game 1 of the NLDS, the Mets combined to score 18 runs in the eighth inning or later. This game is much more than the pitching matchup.

The piece: First five innings, Phillies lead (-105)

I'm definitely leaving the Miracle Mets out of the equation. The Phillies can't do that, but we can.

The Phillies hit Severino twice in September and beat him pretty well, allowing six hits on eight hits in 12 innings. It's a nice situation for the offense to get a good look at him twice before seeing him at home a few weeks later.

The Mets also saw Sánchez twice, but in his home start he allowed just one run in seven innings.

I just have to make sure the Phillies lead through five innings, and I love the pitching matchup for that.

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Jack Flaherty

Since returning to full strength, Darvish has a 2.78 ERA and his only real problem has been the longball: He has given up seven runs in 22 2/3 innings, and five of those runs have come on home runs. He's been better away than at home and you know he has a lot of experience at Dodger Stadium.

Flaherty had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP after the Dodgers acquired him at the trade deadline. He finished his last three games with a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings. The Padres brought him in for three runs on four hits and three walks in five innings in his final start of the season, and they got a quick turnaround to see him again.

The piece: Shohei Ohtani over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115)

I could just ride Ohtani as long as the Dodgers are in this postseason. Maybe that's too simple, but who cares? A win is a win. We don't get any style points for doing longer shots here or anything. I just mentioned that Darvish has improved with the home run and that the only baseball player who can hit out of the ballpark better than Ohtani is Aaron Judge. Ohtani hit .322/.411/.717(!) against right-handers during the regular season and hit a three-run home run against right-hander Dylan Cease in Game 1.

And as I mentioned before Game 1, when I played this exact prop against Ohtani – although it was at 1.5 and is now correctly at 2.5 – he is a premier basestealing threat in front of some major talent. If he just walks, he risks stealing a base (or two) and scoring. In his final 75 games of the regular season, he had 43 stolen bases, a pace of 162 games with 93 steals.

He will take us home here.

Still, I want more.

The piece: Padres over 3.5 runs (-125)

I'm loving this offense right now and I like them to get to Flaherty pretty quickly, not too dissimilar to what happened against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 1. You've also seen almost all of the Dodgers' key bullpen arms.