Wisconsin Senate race tighter than polls show as GOP challenger seeks to unseat Tammy Baldwin: Cook Political Report

(The Center Square) – While recent polls for the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin show incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin with a 7-point lead over her Republican challenger Eric Hovde, a project poll released this week by Cook Political Report suggests pointing out that it is a race one of the most competitive in the country.

Compared to the August poll, when Baldwin was leading by +7%, the latest numbers from Cook Political Report show her with a 2-point lead at 49%, compared to Hovde's support of 47%.

In contrast, results from a recent Marquette Law School poll suggest that Baldwin has a significant lead over her opponent: 53% of registered and likely voters chose her, while 46% chose Hovde in a head-to-head matchup.

Baldwin's lead narrowed slightly to 5 points when respondents were allowed to vote undecided; 10% of registered voters said they were undecided, while 48% chose Baldwin and 43% chose Hovde.

The poll, conducted Sept. 18-26, surveyed 882 registered voters and 798 likely voters in Wisconsin, with both polls having a margin of error of +/-4.4.

Partisans included 34% Republicans, 32% Democrats and 34% Independents.

Baldwin continues to lead her opponent in popularity ratings, with the same number of registered voters who polled her expressing a positive versus negative opinion of her, 47% to 47%.

Both positive and negative ratings of Hovde have increased as voters have become more familiar with his candidacy. 36% of October respondents had a positive opinion of him, while 45% had a negative opinion, for a net positivity rating of -9 compared to Baldwin's net zero.

But 18% of survey participants still said they didn't know enough about Hovde to form an opinion.

Both the MLS and Cook Political Report polls found the two candidates have largely solidified their bases, with independent voters turning toward Baldwin.